25 February, 2016
China is stumbling into this weekend’s G20 meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank governors, with stocks down more than 6% overnight, money market rates rising and the currency weakening further. The IMF has called for further action to support growth, which has disappointed on many fronts so far this year. There is also an underlying risk that the US economy grinds to a complete halt in the first quarter. Talking of growth, we have the second estimate of UK GDP at 09:30 GMT today. For sterling, it’s not been about the economy recently and all about Brexit, so this data will probably not change the bearish tone on the pound unless we see some major deviation from the provisional estimate (low probability of that). The risk of a short squeeze on sterling is naturally rising as the currency moves ever lower, but as always this could require some sort of trigger. For sure, the Brexit referendum continues to create a bearish backdrop, but in the world of currencies nothing moves in a straight line forever.
Other distractions today includes money supply data from the ECB at 09:00 GMT, together with inflation data at 10:00 GMT, where the final numbers are seen steady at 0.4% YoY on the headline rate, with core inflation holding at 1.0%. For currencies, the underlying drivers remain mixed, with the safe havens (principally the CHF and JPY) finding the path of least resistance higher, even though we saw some softening yesterday and overnight. As we mentioned yesterday, currencies could well be a talking point behind the scenes, but market should be aware of the risks that some of these strains could be seen at the surface.
US Fed Boston President Rosengren is due to deliver the keynote speech on the economic outlook, at the Greater Boston Chamber’s Economic Outlook Breakfast...
With US Producer Prices data on the way this afternoon, and predicted to be largely as expected, the morning session will be dominated by central bankers...
Friday's session is expected to be volatile, with Non-Farm Payrolls (13:30 UK Time) ahead and President Trump’s proposal for an additional $100B...
The US and South Korea have reached agreement on a Trade deal that comes with the added bonus for South Korea of a permanent exemption from...
Over the weekend, the EU published a list of tariffs on US products in response to the US tariffs on Steel and Aluminium. The total value of EU tariffs...
Eurozone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Feb) will be released. The consensus points to an unchanged value of 1%. Consumer Price Index...
Yesterday, the US announced Tariffs on Steel and Aluminium, which prompted an outcry from various global leaders and an acceleration in the...
US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) was as expected at 2.5%, from 2.6% previously. Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q4) was 2.3%...
The ECB’s Coeure spoke in Frankfurt at a working group meeting regarding euro risk-free rates. He said that a reform of reference interest rate will...
# | Broker | Review | |
---|---|---|---|
1 | ![]() | easyMarkets | 90% |
2 | ![]() | FXTM | 87% |
3 | ![]() | HYCM | 85% |
4 | ![]() | FxPro | 84% |
5 | ![]() | FIBO Group | 82% |
6 | ![]() | FXCM | 70% |
7 | ![]() | XM | 68% |
8 | ![]() | Fort Financial Services | 67% |
9 | ![]() | Alfa-Forex | 66% |
10 | ![]() | HotForex | 66% |