7 March, 2016
February nonfarm payrolls released on Friday showed an increase of 242k above forecasts of 190k. The unemployment rate was steady but average hourly earnings fell -0.10% against forecasts of 0.20%. The Dollar eased back on the news as the Euro closed Friday with strong gains for the second day. Gold prices were volatile as the precious metal tested 13-month highs at $1279 before closing the day at $1258.
EURUSD Daily Analysis
EURUSD (1.09): Following the two consecutive days of doji patterns last week, Euro is up for the second day closing Friday at $1.101. While a convincing close above the $1.10 handle is required, the bias shifts to the upside in the very short term with 1.113 - 1.1105 coming into focus if 1.095 - 1.093 support holds. With the ECB meeting looming, EURUSD is likely to trade sideways with any rallies potentially being capped near the mentioned resistance. In the event of a break above this resistance, 1.12 will be the next key level to watch for. In today’s session so far, price action has closed below the 1.10 support/resistance level, which could see a possible decline to 1.095 – 1.093 for establishing support. There could be a further downside if the support gives way.
USDJPY Daily Analysis
USDJPY (113.7): USDJPY has been moving flat for the past two sessions but is supported above 112. Indications of a hidden bearish divergence on the daily chart could see another test to 112 if the high above 114.65 is not breached. Below 112, 111.31 support which was tested briefly on 11th and 24th February will likely be the next level to the downside. 117 - 117.25 is the resistance that will be tested should the Dollar manage to close above 114.65
GBPUSD Daily Analysis
GBPUSD (1.42): GBPUSD has posted a steady rally for the past five daily sessions. Friday's close above 1.42 is indicative of a potential move higher with 1.43 - 1.435 coming in as the next resistance. Any declines are likely to be supported near the 1.41 handle. However, there is a hidden bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart which could see a possible decline lower. A break below 1.41 will see 1.40 psychological level come into question and in the event of a close below 1.40, GBPUSD could be looking at the new leg of declines.
Gold Daily Analysis
XAUUSD (1259): Gold prices broke out from the range on Thursday and Friday's session saw the precious metal fail near the 13-month high at 1279. To the downside 1246 - 1240 could be tested for support following the break of resistance. Establishing support here could see further gains in Gold. On the 4-hour chart, the 1250 round number is a key level to watch for any potential bullish reversal patterns as prices are trading inside the range of 1279 and 1250. A convincing close above or below this range could see a further continuation of the bias.
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