16 March, 2016
Following two days of quiet, the markets will be gearing up for a lot of economic releases today. First of the UK’s jobs report is due with hawkish expectations of an increase in the average wages. GBPUSD has weakened strongly but remains supported above the 1.40 handle. Meanwhile, EURUSD and USDJPY are into a holding pattern ahead of the Fed’s statement and press conference today.
EURUSD Daily Analysis
EURUSD (1.10): EURUSD formed a doji pattern yesterday but the downside remains open towards 1.10 - 1.09 support. Price remains consolidating just below the resistance at 1.113 - 1.1105 which if holds could see the upside limited. Below 1.09 support, EURUSD could decline to as low at 1.0825 - 1.0835 which was barely tested during last week's ECB meeting. With the FOMC meeting due later today and US economic data EURUSD could see some significant volatility into the meeting. In the event that EURUSD breaks above 1113 – 1.1105, a test to the next resistance near 1.12 – 1.13 could be possible.
USDJPY Daily Analysis
USDJPY (113.4): USDJPY closed on a bearish note yesterday and could see a risk to the downside for 112.0 support. On the 4-hour chart price action remains flat with no clear bias being established just as yet. In this aspect, there is a strong indication that USDJPY could breakout from its range during the FOMC meeting. Watch for 112.0 - 112.5 support level, which if breaks could see a test to 111.0, while to the upside above 114.7 - 114.35 resistance, 117 - 117.25 will be the next resistance level of interest.
GBPUSD Daily Analysis
GBPUSD (1.41): GBPUSD has declined strongly following a brief test of resistance near 1.435 – 1.43 and is now trading below 1.420. Any upside gains are likely to be limited below 1.43 resistance while a decline to 14025 - 1.40 is very likely. UK jobs report will be due for release today which could be the main fundamental risk aside from the US data due later in the evening.
Gold Daily Analysis
XAUUSD (1233): Gold has broken out from the rising wedge pattern on the daily chart and is now trading below the $1250 support. A rally back to this level to establish resistance could pave the way for a dip to $1200 with prices currently trading near the 1230 - 1225 support level.
The U.S. dollar fell sharply across the board yesterday after the U.S. President Trump in an interview...
The U.S. dollar lost ground yesterday amid a slow trading day with lack of any clear catalysts for the markets. The speech by Janet Yellen did not offer anything new for the markets...
Mexico's inflation is likely to be boosted higher as the government announced that it would be hiking fuel prices by nearly one-fifth from January. The government said that fuel price ceilings will be capped between 14.2% - 20% above December's prices...
The Institute of Supply Management's Purchase Managers Index data is one of the most widely watched indicators. It is considered to be a leading indicator which gauges the strength in the U.S. manufacturing sector...
A fairly quiet Monday saw USDJPY retreating from its recent highs ahead of the big events this week. USDJPY has retraced its gains and now trades just above the support level of 104. The markets look to another slow day today with no major events on the tap, leaving the bulk of trading on the technical aspects...
A quiet economic calendar today ahead of the FOMC and BoJ meetings this week could keep prices fairly flat. The US dollar looks well supported moving into the FOMC meeting first which could keep the euro subdued...
The Bank of England's decision to hold monetary policy steady saw the GBP surge against the US dollar, clearing 1.32 with 1.36 now coming into focus...
Political developments in Japan and the UK saw the respective currencies react in the positive. While the GBP managed to close bullish on news that Theresa May is likely to be the new PM...
Markets were trading cautiously yesterday after the initial positive sentiment flipped led by declines in Oil. ADP payrolls report yesterday showed 172k jobs being added to a better than expected jobless claims as well...