Sterling and the Budget

16 March, 2016

Today is a big day for UK markets as the Chancellor presents his latest budget, detailing tax and spending plans for the coming years. To simplify things greatly, the way it used to work (as still does to some degree) is that all the unpopular and tough decisions are done early on in the parliament, allowing scope for pre-election give-aways close to the next election. It also used to be the case that there was a strong pre-budget ‘purdah’, but this is no longer the case, with the press peppered with stories about the way things are shaping up. These suggest that some of the Chancellor’s more ambitious plans on pension tax reform have been shelved, for fear of alienating their core area of political support, but given his recent comments on the economy, it’s not going to be a ‘giveaway’ budget.

So what about sterling? The UK currency was feeling heavy yesterday, cable falling from 1.43 to 1.4150 on nothing in particular. We were in a more risk averse environment (equities and oil lower) and it appears that cable is seeing a stronger negative correlation to risk. If we take the Citi risk measure (basket of assets creating index that rises when markets are feeling less risky and vice versa), sterling’s inverse correlation to it has been increasing of late. There was a modest positive correlation in the last 3 months of last year (0.14), compared to a negative correlation of 0.23 so far this year. For reference, the Aussie has a correlation of -0.40, with the yen the other end at 0.48.

On top of this, we have a Chancellor who was sounding a more cautious note on the economy over the weekend (the forecasts come from the independent OBR) and who is also likely to throw in the odd warning of the risk of Brexit in his speech today. This could well bring more caution on the part of the currency and I find it difficult to see a bullish outcome for sterling from budget today, with longer term investors likely to be selling into rallies as the Brexit referendum looms ever larger and give reason for more hedging from overseas investors.

Budget aside, we also have the US FOMC meeting later today, where no change in policy is expected, but the Fed is expected to revise it’s so-called ‘dot-plot’ of projections for future policy changes, which in December foresaw nearly 4 increases in rates before the end of 2016.


Source link  
UK Consumer Price Index data

Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (May) is expected to come in at 56.0 from 56.2 previously. Markit Services PMI (May) is expected at 54.6 v 54.7 previously...

FOMC Members will be speaking today

This shows a healthy economy with the 2018 average at a higher level than previous years. Slip under zero can cause a market reaction but is not...

Fed Speakers Take Centre Stage

Fed Member Mester is due to speak at the Central Banking Series hosted jointly by the Global Interdependence Center and Bank of France, in Paris...


Markets Steady Ahead of Euro Open

After further increases in stock markets yesterday, the market is pausing and consolidating ahead of European trading. Asian equity markets are in the green...

Oil Inventories to Show a Draw

Expectations (Apr) are expected to be released with a prior reading of 16.7. This data has been weakening since a reading of 52.0 was recorded in...

Chances of RBA Rate Hike

NZDUSD bucked the trend overnight, as most other currencies managed to retrace some of their declines against the USD. The pair hit fresh...


Consumer Sentiment Index Close to Higher

US Fed Boston President Rosengren is due to deliver the keynote speech on the economic outlook, at the Greater Boston Chamber’s Economic Outlook Breakfast...

Chinese president soothes worries

With US Producer Prices data on the way this afternoon, and predicted to be largely as expected, the morning session will be dominated by central bankers...

Markets fall after more tariffs proposal

Friday's session is expected to be volatile, with Non-Farm Payrolls (13:30 UK Time) ahead and President Trump’s proposal for an additional $100B...


In the past 24 hours Bitcoin has lost -1.21% and reached $7526.16. Open your trading account with the best cryptocurrency brokers on special terms today.

In the past 7 days the EUR/USD pair has lost -0.9359% and is now at $1.1699. Start trading and making money on Forex today.

In the past 7 days Ethereum has lost -13.98% and is now at $587.806. Have the most popular cryptocurrencies compared online 24/7.


Top Brokers offering Daily Forex Market Reviews


Forex Currencies Forecasts


Top 10 Forex Brokers 2018

# Broker Review
1easyMarketseasyMarkets89%
2FXTMFXTM88%
3HYCMHYCM86%
4FIBO GroupFIBO Group81%
5FxProFxPro78%
6FXCMFXCM71%
7HotForexHotForex70%
8XMXM69%
9Alfa-ForexAlfa-Forex68%
10Grand CapitalGrand Capital65%
  


Share: