18 March, 2016
Following the two days of declines, the US Dollar is likely to see a short-term pullback in prices. The bias still remains to the downside and could potentially seek more declines unless there are signs of a reversal in prices. Most of the USD crosses are currently trading at resistance levels, which could confirm the short-term pullbacks in prices.
EURUSD Daily Analysis
EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD is trading near the upper range of the resistance zone between 1.120 and 1.130 on the daily chart, testing the previous highs near this level made around mid-February 2016. A break above 1.130 is essential to see EURUSD post higher gains towards 1.1475 region, which marks a test of resistance which was established around mid-October 2015. To the downside, failure to close above 1.13 could see a test back to the lower levels of 1.12 - 1.119 region. EURUSD is likely to see ranging price action between 1.1335 and 1.12 in the near term with the potential to breakout in either direction following the breach of the resistance or the support level.
USDJPY Daily Analysis
USDJPY (111.5): USDJPY broke below the 112.0 support yesterday to test the lows at 110.672. Any attempts to push higher could see this level attempt to establish resistance, which could open up the downside. However, there is strong support that has formed near the 111.31 levels which could see price attempt to push higher. Below 111.31, the next target comes in at 109.75. Overall, prices remain bearish with the hidden bearish divergence in place. A possible bullish divergence near the current levels could possibly indicate a move to the upside, but only on a close above 112.50 which could target the resistance at 114.7 - 114.35 and eventually to 117.25 - 117.0.
GBPUSD Daily Analysis
GBPUSD (1.44): GBPUSD has reversed near the 1.42 support and closed with two days of strong gains. Price action is, however, still weak to the upside with a test back to lower support likely which now comes in at 1.4263 - 1.42475. The 4-hour chart currently shows a doji and the resulting candlesticks forming inside bars within this doji. A lower close here and below 1.4437 could see GBPUSD decline to 1.4263 - 1.4247 to establish support ahead of targeting the next resistance near 1.4635
Gold Daily Analysis
XAUUSD (1262: Gold prices remain flat following the reversal back to the 1250 handle. While prices briefly tested the highs of 1265, the upside remains limited unless there is a break above the previous highs of 1275. The downside, therefore, is back to the $1250 support initially followed by a decline to $1200 lower support. The rising wedge pattern on the daily chart continues to remain intact but could be validated if Gold jumps above 1275 with closing prices.
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