Revised GDP pushes Dollar higher

March 28, 2016

A surprise revision to the fourth quarter GDP sent the US Dollar higher on Friday amid holiday thin trading. On the whole, the US Dollar closed last week with strong gains and erasing the losses from the week ago. Economic data today will focus on the PCE numbers from the US, but trading is likely to remain quiet for most of the Europe closed due to Easter Monday bank holiday.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.11): EURUSD has formed an inside bar following the doji candlestick pattern last Friday. Pointing to an imminent breakout, further directional bias is likely to be established. Currently, the declines sit close to the 38.2% retracement level off the 02/03 lows of 1.0825 and 17/03 highs of 1.1342. Support comes in at 1.113 - 1.1105 while resistance is at 1.12 - 1.119, which could be tested and potentially cap any further gains in EURUSD. Below 1.1105, lower support at 1.1095 - 1.1093 will be in focus.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (113.46): USDJPY continues its gradual bullish trajectory after prices managed to close above the doji and supported above 112.0. On the 4-hour chart, the hidden bearish divergence remains in place and points to a short-term dip to 112.5. This could potentially mark a short-term correction ahead of a rally to the next resistance at 114.35 - 114.7. A break above this level could see USDJPY attempt to test the older resistance at 117 - 117.250.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.41): GBPUSD remains range bound within last Thursday's range. Resistance at 1.4263 - 1.424 will cap any rallies while support at 1.4025 - 1.40 will hold any declines. GBPUSD could remain range bound within these levels in the near term and only a break out in one of the directions will see the further continuation. But the bias remains to the upside on a test of support at 1.4025 - 1.40, and if the upper resistance gives way, GBPUSD could be looking to post another leg to the upside.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1214): Gold prices are trading close to the $1200 handle but at a risk of a possible short-term correction to the upside. The recently broken support at 1225 - 1230 could likely remain a key price zone for a test of resistance, in which case it would confirm a move to the $1200 handle. Only a break above 1230 will confirm further upside in Gold.

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