Dollar falls on Yellen's comments

March 30, 2016

Janet Yellen's dovish remarks yesterday sent the US Dollar weaker. Her comments starkly contrast the other Fed officials' speeches over the past few weeks which managed to support the US Dollar to make steady gains. Most of the USD crosses managed to rise higher following the Fed Chair's remarks, but the NFP data this Friday will likely be the next big event that markets will be looking forward to. A beat on the estimates could see the Dollar regain its bullish momentum but until then, markets could remain range bound.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.12): EURUSD managed to reverse the losses over the past week with a strong bullish candlestick, which came after a bullish engulfing pattern. The upside is however limited as noted in yesterday's commentary with 1.130 resistance likely to hold ground. EURUSD could remain range bound at 1.13 and 1.12 levels into Friday's NFP report. Above 1.130, EURUSD could be looking at posting further gains towards 1.15 region, while to the downside, 1.110 and 1.10 will be the support levels to watch for.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (112.40): USDJPY formed a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday, and price action is likely to move lower. Watch 112.0 support to the downside. A break below 112.0 could see USDJPY move back to 17th March lows towards 110.6 - 111.0. The 4-hour chart shows the Stochastics likely to point towards a modest pullback in prices ahead of targeting the 112.0 support, but the upside remains limited for now.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.43): GBPUSD has enjoyed a second strong bullish day with prices closing near 1.438 and in the process the inverse head and shoulders pattern has been formed. A breakout above 1.443 will validate the move to the upside for a test to 1.4635 resistance. On the 4-hour chart, there is scope for a pullback to the recent rally formed by the doji candlestick pattern and a failure to establish support below. Any dips will see GBPUSD test the 1.4263 - 1.4247 support.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1236): Gold prices attempted to rally back to the $1250 handle, but price action has stalled near the 1246 - 1238 level of support/resistance. A daily close below 1238 would confirm the downside bias for Gold to test the $1200 level ahead of which, 1230 - 1225 will be an important test. A move to the $1200 is likely only on a break below this minor support level, and if prices fail to close below the previous low and instead form a higher low, Gold could remain range bound at 1225 - 1250 levels.

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