US ADP private payrolls increased 200k in March

31 March, 2016

US ADP private payrolls increased 200k in March

FX News Today

German Retail Sales Fall: Retail sales in Germany (excluding autos and fuel sales) fell unexpectedly in February into negative territory (-0.4%) missing expectations (0.3%) and significantly below Januarys 0.7% which was the first positive figure since August 2015 and now appears something of anomaly. More evidence of weakness from the consumer and the faltering overall economic activity in Germany.

Japanese Housing Picks Up:  Japan’s housing starts rose 7.8% y/y in February after the 0.2% gain in January and confounding expectations of a 2.8% drop. This was the fastest monthly rise since August 2015 when it increased 8.8%. Total Housing starts were 974,000 compared to 876,000 in January. Construction orders fell 12.4% y/y in February following the 13.8% fall in January. Overall activity in Japan’s housing market remains subdued despite these figures and continued aggressive BoJ easing.

US ADP private payrolls increased 200k in March: The rise for February was 205k (revised down from 214k). The service sector climbed 191k, while goods producing jobs edged up 9k. Jobs in trade, transport area rose 42k. Construction jobs increased 17k, while manufacturing added 3k. Professional business services oriented employment increased 28k, while financial accounting firms added 14k. The data was a little better than expected and continues to reflect a healthy labour market.

German HICP inflation rose to 0.1% y/y in March, more than expected and lifting the headline rate back into positive territory, after the -0.1% y/y rate in February. Belgian numbers, released earlier yesterday also moved higher and the data is likely to set the stage for a rebound in the overall Eurozone headline rate this month, with base effects playing a role. For now this should at least limit speculation about further action from Draghi and the use of helicopter money, especially after Coeure suggested that the latter is an interesting academic option, but not actively considered as a policy tool at the moment.

Main Macro Events Today

German Unemployment

Ongoing economic expansion has been underpinning labour markets and German jobless rates are at very low levels, but the pace of the decline is starting to wane as growth slows down and uncertainty about the global outlook picks up. For now though the improving trend continues and we expect a renewed dip in the German jobless number of -3K (med -5K) in March, which should leave the jobless rate steady at a very low 6.2%.

Eurozone Inflation  

Yesterday’s higher than expected German inflation number is likely to set the stage for today’s round of preliminary HICP readings from France, Spain, Italy and for the Eurozone overall, and we have lifted our forecast for overall EMU HICP to 0.0% (med -0.1%) from -0.1% y/y, with an upside bias. The fall back in the headline rate to -0.2% y/y last month provided the official justification for Draghi’s latest round of easing measures, and a rise out of negative territory should at least for now dampen speculation of Draghi’s next steps and give the ECB time to concentrate on implementing what already has been announced. It also backs our view that the risk of a real deflationary spiral remains limited, despite negative headline rates. Still, Draghi’s hectic activism means markets have gotten used to immediately looking for the next step and speculation of additional measures won’t be stopped by one move higher in the headline rate.


Source link  
FOMC said inflation will rise to 2% over the medium term

Asian stock markets mostly headed south ( Nikkei closed own -1.22% at 18, 914) ongoing concerns about am emerging global trade war, and as the dollar weakened after the Fed failed to signal a rate hike as early as March, which some expected after yesterday’s data round...

Asian markets were mixed overnight

US data reports: revealed modest shortfalls across the Q4 ECI data and the January figures for consumer confidence and Chicago PMI, though the shortfalls did nothing to change the outlook for GDP growth of 2.0% in Q1 after a 1.9% Q4 rise. A 0.5% Q4 U.S...

The selloff in equities continued in Asia overnight

The U.S. income report revealed a 0.3% December income rise after a small November boost that tracked assumptions, but a firm 0.5% consumption increase with a solid 0.3% real rise that modestly beat estimates...


Politics will remain omnipresent near term

This week’s heavy data slate is loaded with key releases, headlined by Friday’s January nonfarm payroll report. Jobs are forecast rising 190k after the disappointing 156k December increase...

Main Macro Events This Week

President Trump has his feet under the desk in the Oval office and the tone of his inaugural speech and actions over the weekend reiterated his campaign themes to Make America Great Again...

U.S. reports revealed a hefty 0.8% December industrial production

Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japan and ASX moving higher, as Fed’s Yellen said she expects to hike rates few times a year through 2019 to 3% neutral rate...


Stock markets headed south in Asia overnight

Trump conducted a test of the intelligence community by having a meeting with those agencies without letting any of his staff know and news of that meeting was subsequently leaked, he said...

The year is only a week old

Though the December U.S. jobs report was largely plain vanilla, it was good enough to support rising animal spirits. The surprise headliner of the report, however, was the 0.4% surge in earnings, which caught the markets attention...

US stocks had a quiet day

USD fell back again overnight. Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong are all back from the extended Christmas holiday, but trading volumes are likely to remain thin for the rest of the week...

  


Share: