The dollar delta to payrolls

April 1, 2016

There’s a reason why #NFPGuesses trends on Twitter on payroll day, because that’s what they are for the most part, guesses. Some people spend an inordinate amount of time forecasting the various components and there’s probably some mileage in it, but then come revisions to the prior months and most of the good work is blown out of the water. The chart below shows the recent EURUSD reaction to payrolls reports. Comparing this to some of the reaction we saw at the tail end of last year, the signs are the dollar is less sensitive to payrolls surprises. This makes sense for two reasons. Firstly, the possibility of a rate move at the next two meetings is pretty slim, so we’d have to see a fairly large outlier for the data to change that perception. Secondly, Yellen intimated in her speech earlier this week that the inflationary consequences of the unemployment rate below the 5% level were less than would have previously been the case.

Looking at overnight action, we’ve see the Nikkei weaken by more than 3% overnight, although the reaction the yen was limited compared to the historical relationship between stocks and USDJPY. The weakness in the latest Taken survey played a part in that. We also saw more PMI data in China, with the manufacturing release showing a welcome move north, from 49.0 to 50.2. Ahead of US jobs, we also have final PMI data for the Eurozone, together with manufacturing data for the UK at 08:30 GMT. Sterling was interesting yesterday, initially rising on the upward revision to Q4 GDP, but then sagging as the thought of a 7% current account deficit weighed heavily on the currency and rightly so.

Publication source
FxPro information  FxPro reviews

December 7, 2016
CAD claws back ground
The Canadian dollar has finally managed to gain some ground against the strong USD after weeks of the market waiting for it to react to oil prices beginning to show some turn after the recent OPEC agreements...
December 6, 2016
Cash rates remain on hold at 1.5% as expected
Asian stock markets managed to move mostly higher, after gains in Europe and on Wall Street yesterday. The Italian MIB closed with slight losses Monday, but it seems investors quickly got over the widely expected rejection of Italy’s constitutional reform and Renzi resignation...
December 6, 2016
AUD fell on RBA statement
The Reserve Bank of Australia decide to leave its policy settings unchanged. Such a decision was widely expected. The main, cash rate was left unchanged at 1.5% as expected by every analyst surveyed by Bloomberg...

OctaFX Rating
Z.com Trade Rating
Tickmill Rating
HotForex Rating
XTB Rating
FOREX.com Rating

EZTrader Rating
TropicalTrade Rating
24option Rating
OptionFair Rating
Binary Brokerz Rating
Empire Option Rating