The dollar delta to payrolls

1 April, 2016

There’s a reason why #NFPGuesses trends on Twitter on payroll day, because that’s what they are for the most part, guesses. Some people spend an inordinate amount of time forecasting the various components and there’s probably some mileage in it, but then come revisions to the prior months and most of the good work is blown out of the water. The chart below shows the recent EURUSD reaction to payrolls reports. Comparing this to some of the reaction we saw at the tail end of last year, the signs are the dollar is less sensitive to payrolls surprises. This makes sense for two reasons. Firstly, the possibility of a rate move at the next two meetings is pretty slim, so we’d have to see a fairly large outlier for the data to change that perception. Secondly, Yellen intimated in her speech earlier this week that the inflationary consequences of the unemployment rate below the 5% level were less than would have previously been the case.

Looking at overnight action, we’ve see the Nikkei weaken by more than 3% overnight, although the reaction the yen was limited compared to the historical relationship between stocks and USDJPY. The weakness in the latest Taken survey played a part in that. We also saw more PMI data in China, with the manufacturing release showing a welcome move north, from 49.0 to 50.2. Ahead of US jobs, we also have final PMI data for the Eurozone, together with manufacturing data for the UK at 08:30 GMT. Sterling was interesting yesterday, initially rising on the upward revision to Q4 GDP, but then sagging as the thought of a 7% current account deficit weighed heavily on the currency and rightly so.


Source link  
Trump wants a further $200 Billion of tariffs

While there was risk yesterday from Central Bankers very little was said to move the market. Instead the Trade War narrative boiled up again with the latest...

Oil down over 4% from Friday's open

OPEC and non- OPEC members are meeting in Vienna on Thursday for the start of a 3 day summit where production cuts are on the agenda...

ECB sparks huge moves in the Euro

The ECB dominated markets yesterday as they shifted their policy stance and signalled their exit from QE. The Bank is looking to reduce its bond buying by...


FOMC meeting results in a weaker dollar

The FOMC raised rates by 0.25 bps yesterday evening to a 1.75% to 2.00% target range in a hawkish move and reaffirmed its expected forecast of 2 more...

Progress made between Trump & Kim

US President Trump and North Korean Leader Kin Jong Un met in Singapore overnight. Progress was made between the two leaders during this first meeting...

Poor British statistics presses on sterling

Britain's statistics continue to indicate a slowdown in the UK economy. Today's data showed a decline in industrial production by 0.8% during April against...


Markets pause in anticipation

Yesterday's trading session saw a rotation from the NASDAQ and Tech into the Dow Jones and Industrials. The European Indices have under preformed this week...

RBA leaves rates at on hold 1.50%

Yesterday's session was quite after a pickup in volatility last week and there has been little in the way of movement overnight. This is despite some negative...

Inflation threats troubling markets

On Thursday the markets failed to develop growth momentum. Investors favoured a cautious tone towards riskier assets as the US imposed import tariffs on Canada...


In the past 24 hours Bitcoin has gained 0.39% and reached $6764.87. Open your trading account with the best cryptocurrency brokers on special terms today.

In the past 7 days the EUR/USD pair has lost -0.9545% and is now at $1.164. Start trading and making money on Forex today.

In the past 7 days Ethereum has gained 7.56% and is now at $536.857. Have the most popular cryptocurrencies compared online 24/7.


Top Brokers offering Daily Forex Market Reviews


Forex Currencies Forecasts


Top 10 Forex Brokers 2018

# Broker Review
1easyMarketseasyMarkets88%
2FXTMFXTM87%
3HYCMHYCM85%
4FIBO GroupFIBO Group80%
5FxProFxPro77%
6FXCMFXCM74%
7Alfa-ForexAlfa-Forex72%
8HotForexHotForex71%
9FP MarketsFP Markets70%
10XMXM69%
  


Share: