5 April, 2016
The US dollar failed to capitalize on some modest gains during the intraday session yesterday and by NY's open, the Greenback started to trim its gains. However, EURUSD and Gold are showing signs of easing momentum, and the ranging price action will likely continue in the near term ahead of the big events this week including the FOMC meeting minutes and another speech by Janet Yellen.
EURUSD Daily Analysis
EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD has closed for two consecutive days with a spinning top candlestick pattern which could indicate a near-term decline in prices. 1.130 which was a previously broken resistance level could be seen now being tested for support. Below 1.130, a decline further could see EURUSD fall towards the next support level near 1.120. On the 4-hour chart, price action has been consolidating into a rising wedge pattern which could see prices breakout to the downside for a test to 1.130.
USDJPY Daily Analysis
USDJPY (110.8): USDJPY has broken the 111.0 support and is now seen trading near the 110.7 handle. Price action is now close to trading at 110.672, which was the low formed on 17th March. Failure to hold above this low could see USDJPY post further declines towards the 110 handle. To the upside, price action looks weak with support/resistance at 111.31 likely to hold any gains. We anticipate that USDJPY could remain weak to the downside, but the momentum is likely to ease.
GBPUSD Daily Analysis
GBPUSD (1.42): GBPUSD managed to close on a bullish note following the previous three days of bearish price action. Multiple tests to 1.42 confirm the support level here, and only a break below 1.42 will see further downside in GBPUSD. On the 4-hour chart, price action is seen trading near the support at 1.426 - 1.424. A break below this level could see further downside in store ahead of a test to 1.42. A break below 1.42 will confirm a move to the downside towards 1.41 and eventually to 1.4025 - 1.40 support level that is yet to be tested.
Gold Daily Analysis
XAUUSD (1226): Gold prices are looking to move up again following yesterday's bearish close. So far price action has formed a bullish engulfing pattern, but a daily close will confirm this bias. The new rising median line on the chart shows Gold back at one of the support/resistance levels, currently in the 1230 - 1225 zone. A break higher will see further upside to the 1243 - 1237 zone. Overall, Gold prices are likely to stay limited below 1250 and 1215 levels.
The U.S. dollar fell sharply across the board yesterday after the U.S. President Trump in an interview...
The U.S. dollar lost ground yesterday amid a slow trading day with lack of any clear catalysts for the markets. The speech by Janet Yellen did not offer anything new for the markets...
Mexico's inflation is likely to be boosted higher as the government announced that it would be hiking fuel prices by nearly one-fifth from January. The government said that fuel price ceilings will be capped between 14.2% - 20% above December's prices...
The Institute of Supply Management's Purchase Managers Index data is one of the most widely watched indicators. It is considered to be a leading indicator which gauges the strength in the U.S. manufacturing sector...
A fairly quiet Monday saw USDJPY retreating from its recent highs ahead of the big events this week. USDJPY has retraced its gains and now trades just above the support level of 104. The markets look to another slow day today with no major events on the tap, leaving the bulk of trading on the technical aspects...
A quiet economic calendar today ahead of the FOMC and BoJ meetings this week could keep prices fairly flat. The US dollar looks well supported moving into the FOMC meeting first which could keep the euro subdued...
The Bank of England's decision to hold monetary policy steady saw the GBP surge against the US dollar, clearing 1.32 with 1.36 now coming into focus...
Political developments in Japan and the UK saw the respective currencies react in the positive. While the GBP managed to close bullish on news that Theresa May is likely to be the new PM...
Markets were trading cautiously yesterday after the initial positive sentiment flipped led by declines in Oil. ADP payrolls report yesterday showed 172k jobs being added to a better than expected jobless claims as well...