The relentless yen

April 6, 2016

The brief push below the 110 level on USDJPY yesterday takes it to an 18 month low and has spurred on chatter that the BoJ may choose to intervene to weaken its currency. The price action in the market suggests that currently this is not seen as a major threat, but there can be little doubt that the authorities are not happy that the yen remains the strongest major currency since the BoJ moved to a regime of negative rates towards the end of January. On the other side of the equation, the dollar has been trading fairly benignly over the past few sessions. The impression is that investors can no longer go long the dollar on the basis that the Fed is in tightening mode at the same time that others are easing. We have the Fed meeting minutes this evening, but they are unlikely to change this perception.

Elsewhere, sterling has continued to weaken with the push above the 0.80 level on EURGBP being enhanced yesterday. As ever, the EU referendum in June looms over the currency, but the question remains as to whether this can continue to be a downward force for the next 2.5 months. Fed minutes aside, the data calendar is relatively light for today and it’s noticeable that trading ranges, particularly on EURUSD, have been narrowing over the past few sessions.

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