11 April, 2016
The markets were very mixed on Friday as Oil prices surged, closing the day with over 5.0% gains. However, the equity markets failed to keep up with the gains as yen started to trim its losses and continued to gather steam again, sending USDJPY to close on a modestly bearish note. EURUSD's weekly chart shows last week's price action closing with a doji which could see a further downside if we see EURUSD close below 1.1326.
EURUSD Daily Analysis
EURUSD (1.14): EURUSD closed last week with a doji pattern following the previous weeks of gains. This could signal a short-term pause, but a weekly close below the doji's low at 1.1326 could signal a correction lower. Support comes in at 1.130 and 1.120. There is evidence that EURUSD could see a stronger correction lower towards 1.10 if the support levels near 1.12, 1.11 gives way. On the 4-hour chart, EURUSD has been consolidating near the lower median line and forming lower highs. A move below the short term base at 1.136 - 1.135 will confirm the move lower for 1.13 initially followed by 1.120.
USDJPY Daily Analysis
USDJPY (107.8): USDJPY remains biased to the downside with no strong evidence of any short term bounce or a correction. Price action is, however, trading near the support level of 108.1 - 108.0 region. A break below this level will see further declines towards 105.36 - 105 levels of support from which we can anticipate some kind of a correction to the upside. Any rallies ahead of USDJPY reaching the lower support at 105 levels will be capped near the resistance level of 112.4 - 111.4.
GBPUSD Daily Analysis
GBPUSD (1.41): Price action in GBPUSD is currently showing some conflicting signals. While there is a larger inverse head and shoulders pattern playing out with the right shoulder's low formed near 1.405 - 1.41, a break below this level could see GBPUSD post new lows. Resistance at 1.4425 remains key for any further upside gains to be formed above 1.420. To the downside, 1.4025 - 1.40 will be key as a weekly close below this level could confirm a move lower.
Gold Daily Analysis
XAUUSD (1252): Gold prices closed with a doji candlestick pattern on Friday, but early Monday session has seen Gold prices start off on a bullish note. A higher close on the daily session could keep Gold biased to the upside. With prices trading near 1252 currently, the price action validated the bullish flag breakout which points to a minimum price target near the $1260 region. The downside is well supported with initial support at 1250 followed by 1243 – 1237 levels of support.
The U.S. dollar fell sharply across the board yesterday after the U.S. President Trump in an interview...
The U.S. dollar lost ground yesterday amid a slow trading day with lack of any clear catalysts for the markets. The speech by Janet Yellen did not offer anything new for the markets...
Mexico's inflation is likely to be boosted higher as the government announced that it would be hiking fuel prices by nearly one-fifth from January. The government said that fuel price ceilings will be capped between 14.2% - 20% above December's prices...
The Institute of Supply Management's Purchase Managers Index data is one of the most widely watched indicators. It is considered to be a leading indicator which gauges the strength in the U.S. manufacturing sector...
A fairly quiet Monday saw USDJPY retreating from its recent highs ahead of the big events this week. USDJPY has retraced its gains and now trades just above the support level of 104. The markets look to another slow day today with no major events on the tap, leaving the bulk of trading on the technical aspects...
A quiet economic calendar today ahead of the FOMC and BoJ meetings this week could keep prices fairly flat. The US dollar looks well supported moving into the FOMC meeting first which could keep the euro subdued...
The Bank of England's decision to hold monetary policy steady saw the GBP surge against the US dollar, clearing 1.32 with 1.36 now coming into focus...
Political developments in Japan and the UK saw the respective currencies react in the positive. While the GBP managed to close bullish on news that Theresa May is likely to be the new PM...
Markets were trading cautiously yesterday after the initial positive sentiment flipped led by declines in Oil. ADP payrolls report yesterday showed 172k jobs being added to a better than expected jobless claims as well...