European Council President Donald Tusk

May 4, 2016

FX News Today

European Council President Donald Tusk called for a deal in Greek debt talks by the end of the month and said more intensive efforts were needed for that to happen. Talks are dragging on over reforms Greece must carry out to complete the review of its third international financial rescue package, as well as on contingency steps that Athens must prepare in case it misses its fiscal targets. (source: Reuters)

Chinese authorities are training their sights on a new set of targets: economists, analysts and business reporters with gloomy views on the country’s economy. Securities regulators, media censors and other government officials have issued verbal warnings to commentators whose public remarks on the economy are out of step with the government’s upbeat statements, according to government officials and commentators with knowledge of the matter. (source: Wall Street Journal)

New Zealand’s jobless rate rose in the first quarter as the nation’s labour force recorded its biggest increase in 12 years and Auckland drove an increase in employment growth. The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent in the first quarter, from a revised 5.4 percent three months earlier, Statistics New Zealand said. The labour force increased by 38,000, or 1.5 percent, the largest increase since December 2004.

SF Fed dove Williams expects the Fed to gradually raise rates over the next couple of years and he agreed with the decision not to raise rates yet this year. He is forecasting 2% GDP growth this year, but needs to see inflation pick up or continued progress on the economy to hike in June. He is supposed to be speaking from a panel on systemic risk from Los Angeles later and his remarks are being picked up Bloomberg Radio. He has leaned toward the hawkishly patient side this year and this fits that profile.

BoC Governor Poloz said yesterday in a panel discussion that low interest rates mean less impact from rate moves. International performance divergence causes volatile foreign exchange. The U.S. economy is in a sweet spot for growth. The time it takes before inflation kick in is an open question, he said. The federal budget is expansionary. The Governor is taking part in a panel discussion.

Main Macro Events Today

The ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting:  The ECB Governing council will meet today but no monetary policy will discussed in this Non-monetary policy ECB meeting. The European Central Bank (ECB) announced in July last year that the Governing Council meetings dedicated to monetary policy will change to a new six-week cycle, from January 2015. Non-monetary policy meetings will continue to be held at least once a month.

US ADP Unemployment change: The unofficial ADP unemployment report for April is due today. No major change is expected with consensus expectation being at 196K while the previous survey reported 200K new jobs.

US Non-Manufacturing ISM: The ISM-NMI is out on Wednesday and should hold steady at 54.5 (median 54.1) from last month. The ISM for the month declined to 50.8 from 51.8. Broadly speaking, producer sentiment has eased to still firm levels in April after a surge in March. We expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to dip back to 51 for April from 53 in March and 49 in both February and January. This could spell some downside risk to the release

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