Bank of England Going Nowhere

May 12, 2016

Volatility risks lie squarely with sterling today, with both the monetary policy decision (together with meeting minutes) falling at 11:00 GMT, with the BoE Inflation Report published soon after. The real interest is going to be with the Inflation Report, where we are going to see a lot of questions regarding the impact of Brexit on the Inflation Outlook. We’re unlikely to see major changes to the inflation outlook over the forecast horizon. On one side, if we look at market based measures of expectations, these have risen modestly since the last Report published in February. Furthermore, interest rate expectations (on Bank of England’s method) will have likely softened on over the past 3 months. On the other side of the equation, we’ve seen some weaker activity data over past few months, which could offset. Morgan Stanley’s measure for the length of time for the first hike currently stands at 40 months, which remains far longer than most economist and other pundits are looking at. With the first hike priced so far ahead, it’s hard to see sterling getting that excited about the Inflation Report. The risks lie mainly with any indication or talk of easier policy, given the backdrop that we see of easier elsewhere (Japan, ECB, RBA and potentially the RBNZ and BoC).

Elsewhere, the Brazilian Real continues to pin hopes on the imminent impeachment of President Rousseff, with this seen paving the way for an improved outlook for the economy and finances. Most EM currencies have fallen so far this month and the Real’s performance has stood for most of the year. The question is whether this can continue once the euphoria settles from the current political theatre. From many angles, this looks unlikely.

Publication source
FxPro information  FxPro reviews

February 17, 2017
NZD looks to weaken
The New Zealand dollar has found itself under pressure in recent days as the market has started to hedge a little while it waits on the next steps for the US economy...
February 17, 2017
The dynamics of the Dollar
William Dudley, the head of the New York FED, called for a rate hike in the coming months, but only if economic growth, accelerating inflation and low unemployment, will meet the development trajectory of the FED...
February 16, 2017
The Federal Reserve balance sheet shrunk?
The Dollar has cut through a significant resistance level of 101, thus completing the retracement move after rallying to a maximum of a 14-year peak. It was not without the help from the Federal Reserve...

FIBO Group Rating
FxPro Rating
OctaFX Rating
XM Rating
Grand Capital Rating
OANDA Rating

99Binary Rating
Anyoption Rating
Porter Finance Rating
24option Rating
Binary.com Rating
Banc De Binary Rating