Misplaced hope on the Fed

18 May, 2016

The dollar finds itself firmer during the Asia session, with gains most pronounced against the Aussie and Kiwi, those currencies still with positive interest rates and generally higher beta vs. the US dollar. This came about partly on the back of comments from regional Fed Presidents Lockhart and Williams, both of whom were pushing the prospect of two “possibly three” rate moves this year. But don’t forget that they have been consistently wrong over the past year in their predictions for the Fed Funds rate. The prospect of a June move remains weak in my opinion and although the dollar is firmer, it’s difficult to see such gains sustained unless the data starts to consistently push a change in the anticipated rate path. The firmer than expected data has only played a minority role in the recent recovery of the dollar from the lows. The Fed meeting minutes this evening will naturally be in focus later today.

Overnight, we’ve seen firmer than expected GDP data in Japan, but this was tempered by downward revisions to the previous quarter. So in summary, these numbers are not anything to get excited about and the price action on the yen reflected that, standing only modestly weaker after the initial volatility. After yesterday’s weaker CPI data was largely brushed aside in the UK, the focus today is with the labour market numbers today. The skew of expectations in sterling interest rate markets is towards a loosening of interest rates, but this only being a risk priced for later in the year (around 25% chance). As such, it’s hard to see sterling reacting strongly to the numbers given the limited chance of a change in policy this year. The pound continues to hold up well, despite the impending EU referendum next month.


Source link  
Fed Speakers Take Centre Stage

Fed Member Mester is due to speak at the Central Banking Series hosted jointly by the Global Interdependence Center and Bank of France, in Paris...

Markets Steady Ahead of Euro Open

After further increases in stock markets yesterday, the market is pausing and consolidating ahead of European trading. Asian equity markets are in the green...

Oil Inventories to Show a Draw

Expectations (Apr) are expected to be released with a prior reading of 16.7. This data has been weakening since a reading of 52.0 was recorded in...


Chances of RBA Rate Hike

NZDUSD bucked the trend overnight, as most other currencies managed to retrace some of their declines against the USD. The pair hit fresh...

Consumer Sentiment Index Close to Higher

US Fed Boston President Rosengren is due to deliver the keynote speech on the economic outlook, at the Greater Boston Chamber’s Economic Outlook Breakfast...

Chinese president soothes worries

With US Producer Prices data on the way this afternoon, and predicted to be largely as expected, the morning session will be dominated by central bankers...


Markets fall after more tariffs proposal

Friday's session is expected to be volatile, with Non-Farm Payrolls (13:30 UK Time) ahead and President Trump’s proposal for an additional $100B...

Korea gets exemption on steel tariffs

The US and South Korea have reached agreement on a Trade deal that comes with the added bonus for South Korea of a permanent exemption from...

EU Publishes List of Tariffs on US Goods

Over the weekend, the EU published a list of tariffs on US products in response to the US tariffs on Steel and Aluminium. The total value of EU tariffs...


In the past 24 hours Bitcoin has gained 2.08% and reached $8484.7. Open your trading account with the best cryptocurrency brokers on special terms today.

In the past 7 days the EUR/USD pair has lost -1.1691% and is now at $1.1809. Start trading and making money on Forex today.

In the past 7 days Ethereum has lost -0.53% and is now at $719.392. Have the most popular cryptocurrencies compared online 24/7.


Top Brokers offering Daily Forex Market Reviews


Forex Currencies Forecasts


Top 10 Forex Brokers 2018

# Broker Review
1easyMarketseasyMarkets89%
2FXTMFXTM88%
3HYCMHYCM86%
4FxProFxPro82%
5FIBO GroupFIBO Group81%
6FXCMFXCM71%
7HotForexHotForex70%
8XMXM69%
9Alfa-ForexAlfa-Forex68%
10Grand CapitalGrand Capital65%
  


Share: