23 May, 2016
The US dollar has posted steady gains for three weeks now and ahead of an important week that will see US durable goods orders, revised Q1 GDP estimates, Fed voting member speeches including Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech this Friday, the dollar looks vulnerable at the current levels.
EURUSD Daily Analysis
EURUSD (1.120): EURUSD has reached its bearish flat target last Thursday and has since then moved into trading in range. Price action sits in the support zone of 1.1217 - 1.1143, and we suspect that the downside risks are limited from here. A pullback towards 1.140 - 1.138 is likely to emerge over the week. EURUSD remains biased to the downside so the short term expected a pullback to test the resistance near 1.140 - 1.138 is likely to offer a good opportunity for sellers of the single currency. The daily candlesticks on Thursday/Friday have been small in their ranges and with 1.120 main support, it validates the move to 1.13 - 1.140. In the event that EURUSD slips below 1.120, depending on the momentum, the next lower support will be at 1.110.
USDJPY Daily Analysis
USDJPY (109.80): USDJPY has failed to clear the 50 period daily EMA for the past three sessions. The 50-day EMA sits a few pips below the 111.0 round number resistance which could cap potential rallies. The support near 107.95 - 107.50 remains a key level of interest as prices have not tested this broken support leaving USDJPY vulnerable to the downside. USDJPY has also been rising steadily for the past three weeks with the previous two weekly sessions clearing the 107.95 - 107.50 support. However as mentioned earlier, with this support level not being tested just as yet the downside risks are considerable.
GBPUSD Daily Analysis
GBPUSD (1.451): GBPUSD closed Friday's session on a strong bearish note with the previous day's candlestick closing with a doji right near the 1.4635 - 1.4743 resistance level. While the inverse head and shoulders pattern is obvious on the daily chart, the fact that prices have made a lower high above the neckline support/resistance at 1.44250 makes the bullish pattern questionable. Unless the support at 1.4425 holds, GBPUSD remains at risk of a sharp decline towards 1.42.
Gold Daily Analysis
XAUUSD (1254): Gold prices have fallen for the past three daily sessions, but despite intraday dips below 1250, gold has managed to close above 1250 for the past two daily sessions. Resistance is seen at 1264 - 1270, which is likely to be tested as the downside remains limited for now. Support at 1240 - 1245 will be key to watch for any potential reversal at these lows. To the upside, only a strong price action above 1270 will determine if gold prices can push higher, so for the moment, gold remains stuck below 1270.
The common currency which had fallen sharply over the past few weeks and was eventually seen hovering above the support level of 1.1540 level was seen...
The U.S. dollar fell sharply across the board yesterday after the U.S. President Trump in an interview...
The U.S. dollar lost ground yesterday amid a slow trading day with lack of any clear catalysts for the markets. The speech by Janet Yellen did not offer anything new for the markets...
Mexico's inflation is likely to be boosted higher as the government announced that it would be hiking fuel prices by nearly one-fifth from January. The government said that fuel price ceilings will be capped between 14.2% - 20% above December's prices...
The Institute of Supply Management's Purchase Managers Index data is one of the most widely watched indicators. It is considered to be a leading indicator which gauges the strength in the U.S. manufacturing sector...
A fairly quiet Monday saw USDJPY retreating from its recent highs ahead of the big events this week. USDJPY has retraced its gains and now trades just above the support level of 104. The markets look to another slow day today with no major events on the tap, leaving the bulk of trading on the technical aspects...
A quiet economic calendar today ahead of the FOMC and BoJ meetings this week could keep prices fairly flat. The US dollar looks well supported moving into the FOMC meeting first which could keep the euro subdued...
The Bank of England's decision to hold monetary policy steady saw the GBP surge against the US dollar, clearing 1.32 with 1.36 now coming into focus...
Political developments in Japan and the UK saw the respective currencies react in the positive. While the GBP managed to close bullish on news that Theresa May is likely to be the new PM...