OPEC meeting in the spotlight

June 2, 2016

Asian markets consolidated on the first trading day in June, as uncertainties surrounding the FOMC and Brexit started to dampen market optimism. The Chinese and HK markets both closed marginally lower on Wednesday due to mixed PMI data. The official China PMI stands above 50.0 for a third consecutive month, beating market expectations,  and showing signs of the economic stabilisation of the world’s second largest economy. The Caixin PMI, however, was only at 49.2, slightly below expectations of 49.3, which shows that the smaller and medium-sized companies are still facing headwinds from a slower economy.

Singapore’s STI closed flat on Wednesday. In the near term, market upside might be limited by uncertainties while the downside is protected by cheap valuation.

FX 
USD/JPY tumbled to 109.30 after Japanese Prime Minister Abe decided to delay the sales tax hike by another two and half years to prevent damage to the fragile consumption. However, this decision has raised more questions regarding the country’s debt burden, as well as the effectiveness of ‘Abenomics’.  

Separately, the USD/CNH has soared to its highest level in four months, leading more worries of a fast depreciation of the renminbi, and the resulting capital outflow from China. The immediate resistance and support levels for USD/CNH are at 6.6100 and 6.5500 respectively.

GBP/USD slid further to the 1.4410 area as a recent poll shows that more voters are leaning towards Brexit. AUD/USD rebounded to the 0.7240 area from a three-month low, due to better-than-expected GDP data. USD/SGD retraced to the 1.3760 area after testing a three-month high at 1.3820. The MACD has formed a negative crossover, which indicates slower momentum.

Commodities
The WTI Crude Oil price remained composed at around 48.70 as the market waits for a possible freeze plan by the OPEC countries in their meeting today. Expectation of a solid deal has been so low that any inkling of hope is sufficient to move the market. A few technical indicators have shown a strong resistance level found near to the $50.00 area as discussed earlier.

The strong USD continued to suppress the gold and silver prices. However, rising uncertainty over Brexit and the FOMC may drive up the demand for safe-haven assets in the month to come. Gold is trading at around $1,212 this morning, with an immediate support level at $1,200. Silver slid further to the $15.90 area. Its next support level can be found near $15.63.

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