Commodities take pause after Brexit

June 28, 2016

So far the Brexit has had a large impact on the global economy, with some calling it a Bear Sterns event not seen since 2008. In this case they might be right, but the decision to leave has been made and the market is starting to take it on board. For many the pound trades may be a little too volatile for most to stomach and that makes sense but precious metals on the other hand are at least obeying technical rules in the wake of this global meltdown for the meanwhile.

Silver for me has been a stand out star in the recent turmoil as investors piled into the precious metal as a knee jerk reaction to the Brexit. The jump upwards pierced through resistance at 17.836 and lead to many predicting higher highs, but in this case resistance held out and silver retreated as the market saw this as a one off event and not prolonged in the long run. This was also heavily assisted though by the heavy buying of the US dollar compared to other currencies, which always has a positive effect for the bears in precious metal markets. For now the ceiling at 17.386 has been holding and many will be getting bearish on this given that even with a Brexit it was unable to hold its ground. Support levels at 17.133 and 16.708 will be in the minds of traders looking for lower lows in the coming weeks.

Gold on the other hand has so far struggled technically to gain any momentum as well after the Brexit and has leapt up the charts but been forced back by resistance at 1323.81. There have been a large number of bets leading up the Brexit in the gold market, and many did very well from them but at the same time these positions will likely unwind in the coming weeks unless we see some further momentum. The next level down of support is at 1295 and it's likely that traders will push down towards this level unless we see talk of the 2nd referendum in the UK quashed by parliament - even though the vast majority of the house believes in a 2nd referendum.

Lastly the NZD has been flying as of late quite high, but the recent Brexit has lead to sharp selling in the  commodity currency as markets had looked for safe haven in the USD. Not even the recent trade balance data which came in at 358M could change peoples' minds, and the selloff has continued at tremendous pace for the NZDUSD.  At present the NZDUSD is edging lower towards support at 0.6961 and I expect that it will push through this and target the 50 day moving average which traditionally acts as dynamic support or resistance, but in this case it's looking likely to be support. 

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