Holding back for jobs data

7 July, 2016

There were no great revelations in the Fed minutes yesterday, the narrative being pushed that the Fed remains data dependent and concerns over the job market weighing more heavily. This puts tomorrow’s US employment report ever more in focus and markets are going to largely tread water between now and then. We’ve seen a dramatic shift in Fed expectations over the past few weeks, pushed by the US jobs data and the uncertainties created by the Brexit vote. There are growing concerns that the US is facing a more sustained cyclical slowdown in the economy, which will put to bed any further expectations of Fed tightening of this year. The market currently places a less than 10% probability on this scenario.

Stocks are feeling more punchy after yesterday’s overall negative session, opening around 1% higher on the main European bourses. In the UK, the suspension of various property investment funds continues to make the headlines, but this should be seen as a sideshow, given the inherent nature of a fund that has daily liquidity and invests in illiquid assets. Note that the BoE meets next week and expectations are strong that we will see some sort of easing in policy, but the BoE could well be leaning heavily on the message from its network of agents around the country to get a feel for post-vote reading on the economy.

For today, there are some data releases of interest, such as the ADP data in the US and the ECB ‘account’ of its meeting. Sterling has recovered from the low’s seen yesterday on cable, which is not surprising given the extent of the sell-off seen in the prior couple of sessions. Meanwhile both EURUSD and USDJPY are facing key levels of 1.10 and 100.00 respectively, but neither look under threat ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs numbers.


Source link  
Yuan and Dollar as a weapon in trade wars

The US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday could even be called boring: the report showed the preservation of a completely healthy labour market...

Disappointment with Fed and tariffs

Trump announced 10% tariffs on Chinese goods worth $300 billion since September 1, thus ending the US-China trade truce after disappointingly...

Fed pushes down stocks

Markets have started the week under pressure. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 points in July collapsed...


Gold updates new 6-years highs

Gold benefits from a combination of two factors: lower interest rates in debt markets and continuing hopes that the global economy...

Markets recede from the recent highs

A strong Nonfarm Payrolls caused pressure on the stock markets, reducing the chances of the interest rates lowering by the Fed in the upcoming months...

Gold resumes rally, pushing past $1400

Gold prices resumed a push higher on Monday, as flows into the precious metal continued on improved prospects for easier monetary policy from...


Gold rises as markets slip

Market caution continues to support gold. Quotes of this metal rose to $1337, repeatedly trying to push above this year highs at the 1340-1360 area...

Trump says Brexit should happen

President Donald Trump promised the U.K. a "phenomenal trade deal" Tuesday, on the second day of his state visit to Britain...

Euro and Gold instead of Dollar

Gold rose on Monday to the highest levels since February, reaching $1327 per ounce. In the first hours of the Tuesday trading session, there...

  


Share it on:   or