The oil price is exceeding the markets expectations

August 16, 2016

On Monday the oil prices extended gains for the third consecutive session, climbing to a three-week high amid the firming expectations that the OPEC would freeze their output. The decision will be made next month in Algeria.

The ice traded benchmark for Brent oil delivery in October jumped to an intraday high of $47.59, reaching the month’s peak. On Friday the UK Oil surged by 93 cents, or 2.02% to be exact, on the US Dollar weakness, which was caused by the lacklustre Advance Retail Sales data. For the last week, the traded Brent oil futures rose by 5.74% posting the best weekly performance over the past four months.

On NYMEX, the WTI crude for September delivery rose by 58 cents to $45.07 a barrel after touching the session high of $45.13, a peak of twenty-one weeks. The WTI gained by a Dollar exactly 2.3% on Friday due to the slack in the US currency. For the last week, crude oil futures rose by $2.69 equivalent of 6.04%, showing a maximum weekly jump since April.

Later that day in the London session both benchmarks erased gains returning to the Fridays close, WTI +0.0% at 44.49%, Brent -0.09% at 46.93.

This month, the oil prices rose by almost 10% with the market sentiments buoying after the Oil minister of Saudi Arabia Khalid al-Falih said that the members of OPEC and its member countries will discuss the possible steps to balance the prices during a meeting in Algeria next month. Nevertheless, the market participants are still sceptical about this meeting. Earlier this year, an attempt to freeze the output was foiled because of the Iran’s refusal to support the accord.

Despite the recent growth, signs of the continued recovery of the US drilling activity combined with high fuel stockpiles amid the global demand slowdown are expected to keep the growth curbed.

The oilfield service company Baker Hughes said on Friday that the number of drilling rigs in the US increased by 15 to 396 rigs, marking considerable growth for the seventh week in a row. The continuous drilling activity in the US strengthened the speculation that the domestic production could rise in the upcoming months, underlining the concerns about the supply surplus.

The GBP/USD fell below a 1.29 level in the lack of bidding activity with the pair, expecting negative updates from the UK statistics bureau. It is expected to release data on Tuesday about the UK CPI and employment data on Wednesday.

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