UK consumer optimism is on the rise

1 September, 2016

The UK Consumer Confidence report released by the Research Company GfK shows political and economic views of the UK citizens have picked up in August after a surge of pessimism in July in response to Brexit. MoM change in respective index averaged +5 points to -7 points. In annual terms, the headline reading dropped 14 points from 7 points in the same period of last year.

GfK official Joe Staton explained the upbeat change with UK consumers accommodating to a new reality outside of EU, although seeing no adverse changes after Brexit as official withdrawal process has not yet commenced.

All five consumer gauges have improved in August comparing to the previous month. Economic assessment index was recovered by 11 to -22 points. In August 2015 the gauge printed at 3 points. Economic evaluation for 12 months rose by 2 points to -23 points.

Nationwide House Prices rose 5.6% beating estimate at 4.8%, improved outlook for UK housing market. The Pound extended rally despite a strengthening US Dollar.

The European currency continues to unwind gains against greenback despite a positive unemployment rate change in Germany matching forecasts. The data showed unemployment fell by 7K in August while the Unemployment rate in July remained unchanged at 6.1%. Potential support for the currency was cancelled out by lacklustre EU CPI printing 0.2% year-to-year change, 0.1% lower than expected. Core CPI, which excludes some volatile goods (energy and food), rose 0.8%, 0.1% lower than anticipated.

Safe haven assets retreated with USD/JPY rising 0.28% to 103.28, XAU/USD consolidating near monthly support at $1,316 and USD/CHF rising 0.1% to 0.9845.

Low-yield government securities continue to lose in yields reflecting increased expectations of the rate hike in the coming months; US 10YR yield rose 0.85% to 1,585 while surging to 1,633 on Yellen address in Jackson Hole.

Crude prices decline on high Dollar, WTI -0.88%, Brent -1.07%


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