Fed fighting

13 September, 2016

Friday proved to be a rather uncomfortable end to the week for most markets, with increased nervousness regarding Fed policy resulting in losses in equities, a sell-off in bonds and a sharp increase in implied volatility in both equities and also FX. Once again, there appears to be a fight in play, between a Fed keen to raise interest rates and a market far more sceptical of it happening. Currently, the market places a 30% probability of the Fed putting up rates next week. Today sees the final speech from a Fed official before the meeting, with Brainard due to speak early during the European meeting. Traditionally, she’s perceived to be on the dovish side, but there is some thinking among Fed watchers that she could be used to shift market thinking more towards a tightening. So there are volatility risks on the dollar later today.

For now, the dollar is starting the week on a slightly softer footing and more so against the yen, with talk in some quarters of the BoJ moving away from ‘shock tactics’ of the past. Equities followed through on the Friday session’s weakness during the Asia session, with that also being reflected during the European session. We’re likely to be in a waiting game ahead of the Fed speech later today, with nothing major on the data calendar to provide a distraction before Brainard’s speech at 17:15 GMT.


Source  
OPEC considering deeper cut to oil production

Global oil-producing group OPEC and its allies are meeting in Vienna, with expectations raised over whether the alliance will make further cuts to its output...

Peaked trade optimism?

Throughout the past week, the US dollar has received support after strengthening expectations that the Fed will take an extended break after three consecutive rate cuts...

Russel 2000 doesn't support S&P500 optimism

S&P500 closed Monday at historical highs, adding 0.55% on the day close. Both expected new Fed interest rates cut and possible...


Oil drops on weak corporate data out of China

Oil prices fell on Monday after strong gains last week, as data released in China reinforced signs that its economy is slowing, though progress...

Market Sentiment Hinging On Progress In Brexit

The British parliament will vote on the Brexit agreement today at 18:00 GMT. In theory, this should be a simple vote, with a definite...

Market shows demand for yielding assets

The market shows demand for yielding assets, which in turn supports demand for the stocks and currencies of emerging markets. The main...


Yuan and Dollar as a weapon in trade wars

The US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday could even be called boring: the report showed the preservation of a completely healthy labour market...

Disappointment with Fed and tariffs

Trump announced 10% tariffs on Chinese goods worth $300 billion since September 1, thus ending the US-China trade truce after disappointingly...

Fed pushes down stocks

Markets have started the week under pressure. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 points in July collapsed...