Sagging Fed expectations

28 September, 2016

As discussed yesterday, markets will increasingly obsess about the US election over the coming few weeks, but beneath that the economy will determine if the Fed hikes interest rates before the year is out. After the last meeting, the chance of an increase in rates by year end was out over 60%, with that reading having now decreased to 50%. This shift in expectations has, in part, underpinned the weaker dollar seen over the past few sessions. For all the headlines about the election, the Fed is focuses on the economy and the messages on that have been mixed since the Fed meeting. It also has to be said that whilst the election result looks to be so close, the market will struggle to fully price in an US rate increase by year end. A Clinton victory could seal it, whilst the uncertainty caused by a Trump win could well reduce the chances of a December move. Like it or not, politics and economics are going to be ever more interlinked in this scenario. Leaving all that aside, the calendar for today is on the light side, with just US durable goods data at 12:30 GMT.

Note that we have some speakers in the form of ECB’s Draghi at 09:00 GMT, together with BoE’s Shafik just after 08:00 GMT. Oil prices are sagging below the USD 45pb level as expectations are downplayed by the Saudi’s ahead of the OPEC meeting in Algiers. There are signs of ground being gained in terms of accepting higher output elsewhere, which is why the oil price has sagged, but a significant push lower looks unlikely for now. Sterling continues to flirt with the 1.30 level on cable, whilst USDJPY is also having a torrid time with the 100 level.


Source link  
May won't ask for a long Brexit delay

Prime Minister Theresa May won't ask the European Union for a 'long' delay to the Brexit deadline, her office said, after pro-Brexit ministers objected...

Demand for safe assets grows

Markets remain under moderate pressure, despite the Fed comments. Powell's semi-annual speech in Congress reinforced expectations that the US Central Bank...

US-China trade talks: deadline postponed

China's blue-chip index jumped more than 6% on Monday morning on news that Trump would postpone of the tariff's introduction. The U.S. President...


China buys American oil again

The first U.S. oil shipments to China in months will reach their destinations just days from now, punctuating a pledge by President Donald Trump in December that China would begin buying...

US raises oil prices by imposing sanctions

US oil prices inched up on Tuesday, buoyed by expectations of tightening global supply amid U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and production cuts led...

Trump's tax reform worth $1.5 trillion

One year after one of the biggest tax overhauls in American history, a survey released on Monday has revealed that the tax cut has not brought about...


Equity market causes investors confusion

As a turbulent December in equity markets draws to a close, there's one thing traders and investors can agree on: these are not usual times, especially...

Global debt exceeded $ 184 trillion

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global debt has achieved $184 trillion with $86,000 per person, a figure that is twice larger than...

Why U.S. markets are under pressure

Global markets are on the rise on Wednesday, adding more than 1.2% on the MSCI Asia ex Japan index. Japanese Nikkei jumped by 2%. Chinese...


In the past 24 hours Bitcoin has gained 0.37% and reached $3976.58765705. Open your trading account with the best cryptocurrency brokers on special terms today.

In the past 7 days the EUR/USD pair has lost -0.4259% and is now at $1.1296. Start trading and making money on Forex today.

In the past 7 days Ethereum has lost -3.25% and is now at $135.263989059. Have the most popular cryptocurrencies compared online 24/7.


Top Brokers offering Daily Forex Market Reviews


Forex Currencies Forecasts


Top 10 Forex Brokers 2019

# Broker Review
1easyMarketseasyMarkets91%
2FXTMFXTM89%
3HYCMHYCM88%
4FxProFxPro86%
5FIBO GroupFIBO Group85%
6OctaFXOctaFX84%
7HotForexHotForex81%
8FXCMFXCM78%
9AlpariAlpari76%
10XMXM74%
  


Share: