Sterling and Oil rebound in focus

17 November, 2016

The explosive Trump fueled market rally displayed signs of exhaustion on Tuesday with global stocks trading in a modest range as investors redirected their focus back to global fundamentals. Asian shares were noticeably higher during early trading on Wednesday, following the firm finish on Wall Street and oil’s sharp rebound which renewed risk appetite. European stocks may be in line to open higher from Asia’s bullish domino with Sterling weakness from the persistent Brexit anxieties potentially propelling London’s FTSE100 higher. With sentiment towards the US economy turning bullish amid the rising optimism of higher economic growth under Trump’s presidency, Wall Street could be poised for further gains moving forward.

Sterling ranges ahead of UK labor report

Sterling remains dogged by the ongoing Brexit saga with uncertainty weathering buying sentiment towards the currency. Tuesday’s unexpected decline in consumer price growth for October was the invitation needed for bearish investors to attack the vulnerable GBPUSD back towards 1.2400. Sentiment is clearly bearish towards the Sterling with further declines expected on the GBPUSD as a rising Dollar caps upside gains. From a technical standpoint, bears can attack below 1.2400 or above 1.2700 with targets stretching towards 1.2200.

Investors may direct their attention towards the pending UK labor report which could provide some clarity on how the UK economy is faring in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. The number of new claimants for unemployment has been predicted to edge higher in October, and if such becomes a reality then concerns could elevate over the Brexit woes contaminating the UK labor markets. Another batch of soft domestic economic releases from the UK could be the catalyst bears need to install another heavy round of selling on the GBPUSD during Wednesday’s trading session.

WTI Oil rebounds to $46

WTI Crude staged an incredible rebound on Tuesday evening with prices charging towards $46 as expectations heightened over OPEC securing a production freeze deal at the November 30th meeting. Talks of the cartel general secretary and Saudi Energy minister having informal discussions with Russia ahead of the formal meeting have also enticed speculators to add bets on a potential freeze deal. Although OPEC may be repeatedly commended on their ability to exploit the oil prices sensitivity to create speculative boosts, this could come at a cost if investors are disappointed again. The lingering oversupply concerns still weigh on sentiment while growing fears of a potential decline in demand amid slowing global growth may stop bulls in their tracks.

Participants may direct their attention towards Wednesday’s Crude oil inventories report which if displays a buildup could spark a selloff in oil. From a technical standpoint, bears could reclaim control if WTI slides back below $45.00.


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