CAD claws back ground

7 December, 2016

The Canadian dollar has finally managed to gain some ground against the strong USD after weeks of the market waiting for it to react to oil prices beginning to show some turn after the recent OPEC agreements. However, Ivey PMI data out today showed weakness in the Canadian economy was still apparent as it came in at 56.8 (60.0 exp) showing that despite the optimism in Canada there is still weakness in the economy and the fact it was slightly down on last month will be concerning. For the most part the Canadian economy will benefit greatly if oil prices continue to remain high in the wake of the recent OPEC meeting. What will be key for the Canadian Dollar will be how non-OPEC members such as Russia react to the agreement. There is still a degree of hesitation around dealing with Russian and its needs to pump as much as possible to sustain the deficits it currently runs.

On the charts the USDCAD has broken through a number of key support levels as it slips down the charts in a bearish motion. The largest being the 1.3402 level which managed to hold out for a few days before the market pushed through on the back of oil prices. Currently though the 1.3267 support level is holding up further drops on the charts and the 50 day moving average is acting as dynamic resistance on the chart. This is likely to cause the bulls a little hesitation and they may look to play of key levels rather than focus on turning the trend at this stage. When looking further ahead I would expect the bears to look to play to lower levels at 1.3149 before pausing and looking for further oil movements which may indicate direction for the USDCAD.

Silver has been an enigma as of late as it has bucked the trends and dived lower in a tough market for commodities. For the most part it has looked to follow the market and indeed climb higher as commodity prices have improved in the long term, relatively speaking though silver is very much a precious metal and traders have been pushing it around as a hedge for market sentiment. Despite all of this silver has so far struggled as well with a higher USD which has pushed the metal lower and into the $16 dollar range where it has not been since June.

Silver on the charts has been a technical traders dream as of late as it plays of psychological levels and moving averages very clearly. So far it has held up on support at 16.708 but this looks unlikely to hold in the short term as the market continues to look bearish with the incoming Trump presidency. The 20 day moving average has acted also as a level of dynamic resistance in the market place, and is likely to hold back further movements unless we see drastic change. The next level of support down is at 15.933 and I expect this will be a tough one for the market to crack. 


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