Chinese data set to move AUD & NZD

13 December, 2016

It's been a slow start to the global calendar today as the markets were relatively quiet from an economic data perspective but there was some slight selling of the USD across the major pairs which saw the commodity currencies take centre stage. None more so that the NZDUSD which had its housing data report come back showing housing sales down -6.0% (-14.2% prev), while visitor arrivals were also up 2%. This bodes somewhat well for the current state of the NZ economy which has also seen some political change in the last few weeks, and as the economy looks to pick up in the wake of the recent earthquake. But, it's not all doom and gloom over that side of the world and the NZD continues to be a strong currency in the wake of it all, even as the RBNZ made comments last week that the time for the NZD was now to fall.

The NZDUSD has not fallen, in fact today it rallied strongly on the back of USD selling to touch a strong level of resistance at 0.7180 before pausing and failing to maintain any further momentum. The net level above at 0.7222 is looking all the more cautious, but at present further USD selling could propel the kiwi much higher at this rate. Support levels are also keenly watched and none more so than 0.7113, which has held up any further movements lower. Just below this key support level is the 200 day moving average which the NZDUSD has been respecting quite frequently, and I would expect hold back any further bearish movements in the event of a swing lower.

The NZDUSD may have some of the spotlight but it's not hard to look past the AUD as well as Chinese data is due out shortly in the day and as usual it will have a large impact. Traders will be sharply focused around the Industrial Production reading at present, but also the Australian data due out on business confidence with expectations low for a strong reading given the recent turmoil that Australia has endured from an economic perspective.

On the charts the AUDUSD continues to be a mixed bag and looks very similar to the NZDUSD when it comes to patterns. So far resistance around 0.7490 has been quite strong and the market is looking for further direction from the economic events from today before looking to move either higher or lower. I would expect the 100 and 50 day moving average may look to slow traders who are quite bullish, but it's no guarantee when it comes to such important economic data. The 20 day moving average has thus far managed to act as dynamic support I would expect that to remain the case as the USD weakness continues in the marketplace. However, overall the bullish trend is pointing upwards and it may be a matter of time before the AUD looks to take charge again against the USD bulls. 

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