The business climate index in Germany rose

20 December, 2016

The US Dollar

The Greenback posted declines on Monday with the take profit move, after substantial advance towards the 14-year peak last week. However, the expectations of a monetary policy tightening within the next year continues to serve a solid ground for the US currency.

Experts suggests that the next FED move is not expected earlier than in the second half of next year. Analysts explain that such a forecast about the FED’s intentions comes from the need to analyse and react to the effects of Trumps´ economic initiatives. Financial Times survey participants believe that the FED rates will be in the target range of 1% to 1.25% in the end of 2017.

The index of the US Dollar, which tracks the currency against a basket of other six majors but primarily against the Euro, has retreated 0.15% to 102.77 with largest declines seen against The Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar.

Oil

The Oil prices have gone through a rebound on Monday in the anticipation of the glut clearing glut in 2017, as the decision of the OPEC and non-OPEC countries should accelerate market rebalance. The Brent futures rose by 0.71% to $55.60 per barrel, US Oil advanced 0.91% above last weeks close.

There are clear changes in the CFTC positions on Oil with the net position rising to 422.8K from 377.6K in the week ending with December 13. Long positions rose by 2.5 positions while speculators cut short positions by 30% expecting a short-term advance due to the producer’s cooperation in the Oil market. The OPEC and non-state cartel entered the first agreement since 2001 after a year of negotiations. Producers outside the club agreed to reduce the output by 558,000 barrels per day.

EU data

Data released on Monday showed that the Decembers business index confidence in Germany peaked first time after April 2014, suggesting that the company’s owners are not affected by the victory of Donald Trump. Based in Munich Research Institute, IFO said that its business climate index in Germany rose to a seasonally adjusted 111.0 this month from 110.4 in November. The data has had not visible impact on the European currency as EUR/USD trades nearly unchanged in the area of 1.05 level.


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