The dollar correction cometh

6 January, 2017

The issue with the dollar rally has always been its foundations. I highlighted this yesterday and this was also a feature in the Fed minutes released last night. The discussion over the economy reflected that participants “emphasized their considerable uncertainty about the timing, size, and composition of any future fiscal and other economic policy initiatives as well as about how those polices might affect aggregate demand and supply”. But that has to be balanced by the fact that almost all also indicated that the “upside risks to their forecasts for economic growth had increased as a result of prospects for more expansionary fiscal policies”. This point is interesting, as the upward revision to the 2017 growth forecast in the December ‘dot-plot’ was 0.1%, so for now the FOMC is seeing higher growth as more of a risk than a reality.

From this, it’s not difficult to spin the view that the dollar correction seen overnight is overdone as a pure reaction to the minutes, but this reflects the fact that the dollar rally is more vulnerable to correction. It’s also reflected in the fact that the biggest gainer against the dollar in the past twelve hours has been the yen, which has lost the most ground in the rally of the past two months. This could well be the emerging theme of January as we head to the inauguration of the next US President. Tomorrow’s employment report could play into that theme, but we would have to see something fairly wide of the 180k median to really impact the dollar, because it’s not been the economic data that has been driving the latest rally. For today, we have the ADP numbers ahead of tomorrow’s US employment report, but these are unlikely to upset the tone unless substantially off the 175k expectation.


Source link  
Markets pressured by Huawei problem

Alphabet and some other American IT companies have suspended business with Huawei, which is one of the first examples of major consequences for...

The climate is changing rapidly

British people need to fly less, drive electric cars, eat little meat and turn their home thermostats down to 19 degrees Celsius (66 Fahrenheit) in order to rein...

Chinese stocks saw their worst week

Chinese stocks have taken investors on a ride this year. Shanghai and Shenzhen have been the best performing global markets this year, with the Shanghai...


Risk-sensitive currencies on the rise

Stock markets show growth after the release of strong data for China and Japan as their respective PMIs were better than expected which supported...

Trump again puts pressure on OPEC

President Donald Trump told OPEC on Thursday that its members should start pumping more oil, marking his second warning to the producer group this year...

Turkish lira fell by 5% before elections

The Turkish lira dropped by as much as 5 percent against the dollar on Thursday morning, as the country gears up for elections this weekend. The greenback...


May won't ask for a long Brexit delay

Prime Minister Theresa May won't ask the European Union for a 'long' delay to the Brexit deadline, her office said, after pro-Brexit ministers objected...

Demand for safe assets grows

Markets remain under moderate pressure, despite the Fed comments. Powell's semi-annual speech in Congress reinforced expectations that the US Central Bank...

US-China trade talks: deadline postponed

China's blue-chip index jumped more than 6% on Monday morning on news that Trump would postpone of the tariff's introduction. The U.S. President...

  


Share it on:   or