Searching for a new narrative

11 January, 2017

Popcorn at the read today as President elect Trump has a scheduled news conference later in the day (around 16:00 GMT). Markets have become used to listening to him in 140 characters or less over the recent weeks, so a more elongated narrative should be welcome. It’s pretty clear that the dollar strength has stalled, with the uptrend seen since the US election results waning on a technical basis. The week so far has seen some reversal of the recent weakness, but this has been within very narrow ranges. This held true for cable yesterday, which posted a low at 1.2108 before recovering through the day. Note that BoE governor Carney speaks this afternoon in front of the parliamentary Treasury select committee, so sterling will be keeping a close eye on that. As discussed yesterday, sterling remains the only major currency weaker against the dollar in the short year to date.

Elsewhere whilst the Dow continues to struggle with the 20k area, the FTSE has continued its push north, not having seen a down day since before Christmas. Gold has also been doing a decent job of brushing off the weakness seen in the closing weeks of last year, having now recovered 4% from the lows. The move has outpaced the reversal of the dollar turn-around, underlining the fact that’s it’s more than just about the currency for gold. Before Trump o’clock, we have UK trade and production data at 09:30 GMT. Otherwise, we’re likely to see a fairly tentative market through the day, both in FX and equities.


Source link  
Divergence Between Fed and BoJ

The March FOMC meeting will be held for two consecutive days from today. The interest rate decision will be announced at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday 15th March...

Market Volatility Expected Ahead of President Trump's Speech

In a speech that will be watched by millions of viewers in the United States and around the world, the President is expected to speak of his presidency and address pressing issues like his plans for health care, the tax system, the military, and his goals for his administration...

Gold Trades Below Resistance Ahead of the Fed and NFP

We will see the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, and ISM Prices Paid for January, at 15:00 GMT on Wednesday 1st February...


Sterling Struggles Ahead of Theresa May's Speech

Theresa May will make a speech outlining her plans for Brexit tomorrow, Tuesday 17th Jan, before the UK triggers Article 50 to leave the EU...

Dollar Turn-around on Trump's Press Conference

President Elect Trump's first press conference after his victory in the US presidential election, was held yesterday around at 16:00 GMT. It has caused great volatility to the dollar and the markets...

Gold Nears Major Resistance Ahead of Trump’s Press Conference

Gold prices have rebounded since mid-Dec after testing the significant support line at 1120. On the 4 hourly chart, gold bullish momentum has been strengthened since the beginning of this year, helped by the dollar retracement...


The sterling conundrum

Yesterday's early weakness in sterling, on the back of the latest comments from PM May surrounding Brexit, took cable close to key support levels and the resilience seen through most of the post US election period has been unwound...

Selling into USD strength

In summary, Friday US jobs report was pretty much in line with expectations, although the slightly better data on earnings gave some support to the dollar into the end of the week. As a result, the US currency was little changed from Tuesday opening levels...

The dollar correction cometh

The issue with the dollar rally has always been its foundations. I highlighted this yesterday and this was also a feature in the Fed minutes released last night...

  


Share: