Fed speakers, BoC and UK employment

18 January, 2017

We are going to see some central bank action (Canada) and hear from some Fed members and the chairwoman today. Apart from that we will get more information on the UK labor market and a data package from the US, including CPI for December and industrial output.

9:30 am GMT, UK, labor market data: the previous release was mixed with a disappointing print of employment but another positive suprise in the pace at which wages ex bonuses grow in Britain. And yet, the labor market does not seem to be strong enough to make wages accelerate (actually stabilization at 2.6% YoY is expected now) in the same way as inflation is expected to accelerate (the CPI release yesterday beat expectations). GBP is already on the backfoot today but a poor reading of employment is already priced in (the consensus is -35k for 3M/3M employment change, -6k was registered previously) so the release has a relatively high chance of helping to stabilize the British currency. The pound has seen a huge gain yesterday, but today is the weakest currency among G-10. The release will also include jobless claims numbers for December (the other parts of the report will cover November)

10 am GMT, EMU, December inflation, the final reading is expected to confirm the 1.1% YoY and +0.5% MoM flash estimate; the German final data on inflation this morning came exactly in line with the preliminary release; due to the ECB rhetoric more focus will be on the core measure which most likely moved from 0.8% YoY to 0.9% in December; construction output from the Eurozone will also be out at this hour

 1:30 pm GMT, US CPI, there was a surge of inflation across the globe in December on energy costs and this will be the first opportunity to check to what extent it has also affected the US. The headline CPI is expected to jump from 1.7% YoY to 2.1%, but the core measure might stay at 2.1% (remember that the 2% YoY inflation target is set on PCE, not CPI inflation). The market also expects a strong print of industrial output for December. If it matches the expected 0.6% MoM growth then it would be the strongest outcome since July 2015, but even then the capacity utilization would most likely stay the lowest since 2011. There is still a large gap between the optimism expressed in business surveys and the real production volumes in the US. The housing market index from NAHB at 3pm (it surged in the previous, December release) could also be interesting as the last speeches by FOMC members covered the issue of asset bubble risks.

3 pm GMT, monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Canada + a release of the quarterly Monetary Policy Report with an update of BoC economic projections. No decision on rates is expected, but the Bank will have to address the strong run of local data, but weighing it against the uncertainty of what the new US administration has in store for Canada. See our preview of this event HERE.

When it comes to Fed speakers we’ve got Robert Kaplan at 2 pm GMT (with Q&A), Neel Kashkari at 4 pm (no pre-release of the text speech, most likely no Q&A) and Janet Yellen at 8 pm.

Source link  
Oil remains elevated, US production keeps rising

Baker Hughes report for the last week has showed another rise of US oil producers activity. The number of active rig counts rose by 8 w/w which obviously favours the further rebound of supply on the market...

DAX reached the nearest resistance

European stocks are trading higher today due to a general risk-on triggered by Donald Trump. He commented on deregulation and corporate tax cuts and commited to introducing a plan in 2-3 weeks which was more than enough for US stocks to surge towards new record highs...

DAX struggling to deny that it is caught by bearish channel

The sentiment on European equities is very cautious, but the main indices remain slightly above zero today. The Dax made an attempt in the morning to shake off its recent weakness, but upward move faded within one hour...

Deutsche with shorts on EURCHF

Bank remains short EURCHF targeting 1.02, Deutsche says that if speculators also upped the pressure, continued intervention would become ever costlier...

DAX - a volatile start of the week

The DAX started the week with a fall of 100 points that was quickly corrected. Currently the index a bit higher on the day and the first drop should be associeted with the political news...

Stocks begin the week on the back foot

Stock markets have started out in a defensive mode this morning with the FTSE 100 falling more than 60 points. Donald Trump is in the headlines once more as his latest executive order signed late on Friday has caused a furore around the globe...

USD back on track

The overnight trading results in a continuation of the US dollar gains. A broad based recovery of the US currency is what has been missing yesterday morning to call the market behavior a proper return of the Trump trade...

UK GDP grows faster than forecast

This morning saw the release of data which shows that the UK economy grew faster than expected in the final quarter of 2016. The pound is higher on the day but has seen some weakness since the release, perhaps due to some traders seeing this as a good opportunity to book some profits after a strong run higher in the past couple of weeks...

A small sell-off on Oil after API

After a closing bell on Wall Street, API issued a weekly report on Crude Oil inventories in the US. The report is pretty bearish for oil. Inventories rose by 2.93mln bbl with expectations at 2.5mln. If the data is confirmed it will be the 3 consecutive week of growth...

In the past 24 hours Bitcoin has lost -0.98% and reached $3571.20236246. Open your trading account with the best cryptocurrency brokers on special terms today.

In the past 7 days the EUR/USD pair has gained 1.5351% and is now at $1.1563. Start trading and making money on Forex today.

In the past 7 days Ethereum has lost -9.54% and is now at $116.961207426. Have the most popular cryptocurrencies compared online 24/7.

Top Brokers offering Daily Forex Market Reviews

Forex Currencies Forecasts

Top 10 Forex Brokers 2019

# Broker Review
5FIBO GroupFIBO Group83%
10FP MarketsFP Markets69%