Oil looks to break out

22 February, 2017

Over the last  few months hedge funds and traders have been seen placing large bets that OPEC will indeed come through with its production cuts and oil will accordingly jump higher, so far it has been positive on the production cut front, and we are starting to see oil markets looking like they may trend again - instead of the ranging behaviour we have seen over the last few months. One thing worth noting in all of this is how important Russia is, given that it just become the world's largest producer of oil as it overtook Saudi Arabia. But so far so good as 90% of the production cuts that were outlined have been implemented. However, US inventory data has been not positive for oil traders as since Trump has taken to office there has been a build up of supply, something that many were expecting not to happen. Despite all of the pros and cons oil has looked to jump back to life.

The 20 day moving average was key for oil as it looked to trend slowly up the chart, it had a few breakdowns previously but seems to still respect the level and as of now is sitting just below resistance at 54.36. What will be key here will be if oil can push above this level and look to extend higher; breaking out of the ranging phase and looking to trend again as it has historically been so good at. Above the current resistance level the next level will be found at 55.19 which was where the market looked to extend to earlier in December after the OPEC cuts were announced I would expect to see this area already priced in with the cuts, but it would also be pushed higher if we saw a reduction in US oil inventory data.

One of the other interesting commodities as of late has been silver, as it has charged up the chart much like gold on the back of speculation around Trump uncertainty. While not as popular as gold it has been a stand out performer in recent months and should not be discounted as it's prone to large movements on the c harts. And with preliminary GDP and unemployment claims still on the horizon for the US economy this week there is certainly room for further large movements. Also the USD weakness could be something that looks to push silver higher in the short term.

From a technical point of view silver has been quite bullish as of late, with large movements upwards since December in a constantly trending pattern. The 20 day moving average has largely been shadowing silver on the charts, with large bearish movements being pushed back by the silver bulls upon touching this level. The 200 day moving average has also been heavily respected, but the focus right now is on resistance at 18.091 with the market treating this like the level to beat. Long tails on the candles are also pointing that the bulls have not given up and further extensions higher may indeed be quite possible.


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