FED in focus

15 March, 2017

For traders there is no other trade than the FEDs announcement come 1800 GMT, with the market predicting a rate rise from the current 0.75% to 1.00%. This would be a momentous occasion as it would look to be the start of monetary policy returning to normal, and the market has big expectations with 94% of predicting a rate rise off the back of the Non-farm payroll results last Friday. So the market is pricing in rate rise, but historically the FED has been dovish and Yellen is not one to jump the gun on the back of market pressure. We could end up with a big swing if we don't actually see a rate rise in this case, and it may fall to Yellen's statement afterwards to provide real guidance for the markets. One thing that is clear is that regardless of a rise or not, the market will likely be quite volatile during this period and I would expect big moves off the back of this announcement across all major pairs and some commodities.

The USDJPY will be for me a big mover, as the market had been hedging in the USDJPY for some time off the back of the recent Trump election, and has been unwinding as of late in the build up to this FED announcement. Previous trending has so far shown a ranging pattern recently on the daily chart and the recent rejection at resistance at 115.630 is a clear signal that the market is pausing until it sees a much clearer picture from the FED. A rate rise tomorrow could propel it much higher to the next level of resistance at 118.688 and traders will be looking to open the flood gates here. No movement at all could send the USDJPY back down to support at 111.655. I would be slightly surprised to see it push through here unless the FED was very dovish, as it is likely that Yellen will be bullish in the event of a pause given the movements recently in the labour market.

Crude oil has been one of the interesting movers recently and with a new week and new figures we could see some fight back from traders. One of the key points though will be how OPEC reacts to the recent drops in oil prices, and could lead to calls from OPEC nations to extend production cuts further. I would be surprised to see the be less aggressive now, and it does feel that with the recent movements we will continue to see OPEC trying to influence as much as possible.

Looking at Oil on the charts and it's plain and clear to see that it's certainly hung up between support at 48.99 and the 50.0 fib level which is trapping it from further movements. Any strong directional movement from here will likely be carried forward, but it may be a case of Oil building up to tomorrows inventory announcement. A build up again will likely see oil retest the 61.8 fib level.


Source link  
Pound crumbles as UK inflation fails to rise

Repeated signs of easing inflationary pressures in the United Kingdom could plant a seed of doubt among investors about whether the Bank...

Global shares come under pressure

Asian equities fell on Tuesday after Oil prices tumbled by more than 4.6% during the previous session, following reports that Saudi Arabia has offered...

USD and Nasdaq continue strong run

US inflation figures were the main focus today for the US economy, as it saw CPI lift in line with expectations to 0.2% m/m. Well this is not a strong hawkish signal...


Trade war escalation triggers risk aversion

A fresh wave of risk aversion swept across financial markets after the United States threatened to impose tariffs on an extra $200 billion worth of Chinese goods...

Investors shrug off trade fears

Trade frictions dominated the headlines last week, but Wall Street investors shrugged off worries of an escalating trade war and instead cheered...

US tariffs on China to steer attention away

Confirmation in the early hours of Friday morning that President Trump will impose tariffs on Chinese imports starting today is likely to take attention away...


OPEC looks to increase supply

Oil markets have been focused on the OPEC meeting happening at present which is likely to wrap up tomorrow and give some serious insight into OPEC...

Market event not to ignore

In a week where market headlines continue to be driven by a potential trade war breaking out between the United States and China along with the latest OPEC meeting...

Markets searching for new catalyst

U.S. equities kicked off the trading week with two indices, the Nasdaq Composite and the Russell 2000, hitting new record highs. This impressive performance...


In the past 24 hours Bitcoin has lost -0.38% and reached $7303.06. Open your trading account with the best cryptocurrency brokers on special terms today.

In the past 7 days the EUR/USD pair has lost -0.1166% and is now at $1.1665. Start trading and making money on Forex today.

In the past 7 days Ethereum has gained 7.58% and is now at $475.394. Have the most popular cryptocurrencies compared online 24/7.


Top Brokers offering Daily Forex Market Reviews


Forex Currencies Forecasts


Top 10 Forex Brokers 2018

# Broker Review
1easyMarketseasyMarkets90%
2FXTMFXTM88%
3HYCMHYCM86%
4FIBO GroupFIBO Group79%
5FxProFxPro78%
6FXCMFXCM73%
7AvaTradeAvaTrade69%
8HotForexHotForex68%
9XMXM68%
10Alfa-ForexAlfa-Forex66%
  


Share: