17 April, 2017
The Euro ticked higher in early Monday, supported by the latest polls that tip centrist candidate Macron as likely winner of the first round of French presidential election which are scheduled for the next Sunday. However, near-term price action is still directionless, in holiday-thinned trading, hovering around daily cloud top at 1.0620 and being so far capped by daily Tenkan-sen / Fibo 38.2% of 1.0676/1.0601 downleg at 1.0628.
Flat near-term studies are lacking direction while dailies remain bearishly aligned and see risk of fresh weakness and return into daily cloud (spanned between 1.0583 and 1.0620), while recovery attempts remain limited. Stronger bullish signal could be expected on firm break above Tenkan-sen pivot, with extension above 1.0647 double- Fibonacci barrier (Fibo 61.8% of 1.0676/1.0601 and Fibo 23.6% of 1.0905/1.0568) to confirm reversal.
Otherwise, immediate risk will remain shifted lower with upticks seen preceding fresh weakness. Session low at 1.0601 marks initial support, loss of which would open key points at 1.0583 (daily cloud base) and 1.0568 (10 Apr low).
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