6 June, 2017
There are not many political or economic events on the schedule today. The only important economic event is the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), a very unpredictable event with a mixed history of market reactions.
In any case, job openings are predicted to have a rise above trend and this difference between the high levels of job openings and the lower rise in nonfarm payrolls can be easily resolved. As the number of jobs increases and the number of workers decreases it gets tougher to fill a particular job opening. This does not bode well for any future rises in NFP but bodes well for upcoming wage increases which will also have a positive effect on the dollar.
Everyone is looking ahead to Thursday’s ECB meeting with the main debate resolving around the key ECB interest rates and whether these will go lower or even higher. There is also the question about their growth outlook with the market waiting to see whether they are going to alter the assessment of risks on growth to balanced, too.
These changes will be the first step towards changing their entire policy. If these changes do take place during the June meeting, then they can start the prep work for tapering during their next meeting in July. However, this could be a highly unlikely scenario with the tapering process being in fact delayed, giving the doves an even greater support.
The recent terror attacks that took place in the UK overshadow polling results. Even though the recent events were clearly the major focus of all UK traders, the latest weekend polls- the final weekend polls ahead of the elections- were extremely interesting; the conservative party, which had a strong lead in previous polls, saw a further decrease on their lead.
Like the majority of commodity currencies, the Australian dollar was also falling against USD as a result of the poor news in Australia.
The pair achieved in its correction the key resistance zone of 0.7500, reinforced by the lower boundary of the pink channel on D1.
Support and resistance
US Crude Oil
On the D1 chart, crude oil broke through the middle line of Bollinger Bands and continued the movement to their lower border. There is a strong support level of 47.15
Support and resistance
Hawkish or Dovish, well today we have retrospective examples of its effect on the sentiment for a currency. In one case Yellen’s indication that national debt should be capped and that monetary policy should be gradual...
This is a notable day for several interrelated moves: the fall of the yen, the rise of the dollar, and the drop in precious metals. All these changes resulted ...
Although markets seemed to calm after last week’s activity, this doesn’t mean that the newsrooms are quiet. One of the big topics – is Deutsche Bank’s big derivative loss estimated at $60 million due to a risky bet placed on U.S. Inflation. According to Bloomberg.com...
Italy arranged for one of the biggest bank rescues in history, with a cost of up to 17 billion euros ($19 billion) in order to wind up two failed banks in one of Italy's wealthiest regions. However, the deal- which was approved by the European Commission...
Yesterday we saw a continuation in the drop of oil prices, which rippled out into the markets – pulling down both US and European StockÂ with it. This is likely a result of fears due to the non-OPEC countries ramping up production to cover the gap left from the OPEC+ agreement to restrict production...
Although not an outright conflict, the discussions surrounding the Brexit talks have been at best contentious and at worse...
The previous week's economic calendar had the potential to destabilize some of the world's most traded currencies...
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The US dollar saw a rapid drop of its price opposite other major currencies after the announcement of the less than positive and expected statistics regarding U.S. inflation and retail sales. Retail sales dipped significantly to 0.3% in May down from the 0.4% rate of the previous month...