Oil nears key levels

20 June, 2017

Oil continues to struggle on the charts as last week's expectation for oil failed to show any real signs that there was a drain on the US oil inventories. While there was at least some drain on the inventories of -1.66M the expectation of a drop to -2.74M led many to continue to be bearish on oil markets. This has also been further pushed by recent developments in the US market, namely shale continuing to produce a large surplus of oil for the US economy despite the fact many wrote it off after the price drops. OPEC as well has struggled to reign in prices as the market sees it as less of a threat now days given the move to renewables and also the fact that economies are not consuming oil at any great speed anymore.

For oil markets the bears are looking very much in control. Most pull-backs we have seen thus far on the daily chart instead look more like unwinding in the marketplace and traders looking to take profit. What is also very clear is that the trend is strong and does not look like it has run of steam and support at 44.01 is looking very close. Further support at 43.10 is a very strong level and could be the line in the sand that traders are looking to hit before we see any bulls come back into the market. In the event we do see them swing back in (and they will)expectations for resistance can be found at 45.80 and 47.75. In the event the market does finally turn and we see a strong bullish run in oil I would also be aware of the long term trend line on the daily chart which will be a hard ask in present times.

The Australian economy is not having a good day to day, with Moody's downgrading it's banking sector, sighting weakness in the local economy and over supply in iron ore at present to the Chinese market. Last week's Westpac consumer sentiment report also showed strong weakness in the Australian economy at -1.8%. And even while unemployment may have shifted lower to 5.5%, the jitters are certainly still there for any Aussie bulls left in the market. One thing is clear is that the market will be heavily focused on the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes which are due out shortly.

Traders so  far have struggled to break through at resistance at 0.7622, and all daily candles looking to move higher have started to look weaker and weaker. If the AUDUSD can move higher, then a next level target at 0.7677 would be ideal. If the market does look to push lower then strong levels of support can be found at 0.7556 and 0.7502. I would also look to focus on the 20 day moving average as potential, given that the market has looked to use it as dynamic support/resistance previously as well. 


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