11 October, 2017
With fears abating surrounding the threat of Catalan independence, the EUR moved higher overnight. Catalan President Puigdemont stated that, although the October 1st referendum had given him the mandate to pursue independence, he would “suspend” the result for a period of a few weeks whilst he has discussions with Spain’s Prime Minister Rajoy’s administration. He commented that the greater European Union should be involved in any discussions as he tries to reassure many Catalan based companies that are threatening to leave the region.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May appears to have “won back” several of her recent critics of her leadership. Many so-called “Brexit Hardliners” in her own Cabinet have supported her recent comments on her contingency plans for leaving the European Union without a “deal”. GBP recovered from its recent losses, but will be sensitive to any further political “unrest” in the UK.
In the US, President Trump has dismissed the recent “war of words” he had with Senator Corker over his, and his administration’s, ability to govern. Trump has failed miserably during his tenure to get any of his policies approved and needs support, especially from within his own Republican Party, in order to get his Tax Reform policy through the US Senate. The recent “spat” between Trump and Corker put the Tax Reform “front and center” and resulted in a slight USD sell off, again those fears appear to be abated, but the markets will be closely watching for any more “Trumpisms” that could bring his leadership into question.
Finally, the IMF raised its global growth rate targets for 2017 up to 3.6% from the previous 3.5% July estimate. For the US, growth is expected at 2.2% (prev. 2.1%), China expected at 6.8% (prev. 6.7%), Eurozone expected at 2.1% (prev. 1.9%) and Japan expected at 1.5% (prev. 1.3%). However, the IMF downgraded the UK’s growth target to 1.7% (prev. 1.9%).
EURUSD is up slightly overnight and currently trading around 1.1819.
USDJPY is little changed overnight, currently trading around 112.38.
GBPUSD is lower by 0.1% in early Wednesday trading. Currently, GBPUSD is trading around 1.3198.
Gold is slightly higher in early trading at around $1,289.
WTI is 0.5% higher overnight, following news that Saudi Arabia will cut its Oil exports by 560K barrels a day in November. Currently, WTI is trading around $51.40.
Major data releases for today:
At 19:00 BST, The US Federal Reserve will release the minutes from their recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) held in September. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool is indicating an 89% probability of a rate hike in December. The majority of the FOMC members support the move, but there are some members who want to wait until US inflation moves higher.
This shows a healthy economy with the 2018 average at a higher level than previous years. Slip under zero can cause a market reaction but is not...
Fed Member Mester is due to speak at the Central Banking Series hosted jointly by the Global Interdependence Center and Bank of France, in Paris...
After further increases in stock markets yesterday, the market is pausing and consolidating ahead of European trading. Asian equity markets are in the green...
Expectations (Apr) are expected to be released with a prior reading of 16.7. This data has been weakening since a reading of 52.0 was recorded in...
NZDUSD bucked the trend overnight, as most other currencies managed to retrace some of their declines against the USD. The pair hit fresh...
US Fed Boston President Rosengren is due to deliver the keynote speech on the economic outlook, at the Greater Boston Chamber’s Economic Outlook Breakfast...
With US Producer Prices data on the way this afternoon, and predicted to be largely as expected, the morning session will be dominated by central bankers...
Friday's session is expected to be volatile, with Non-Farm Payrolls (13:30 UK Time) ahead and President Trump’s proposal for an additional $100B...
The US and South Korea have reached agreement on a Trade deal that comes with the added bonus for South Korea of a permanent exemption from...