Global markets consolidate

28 November, 2017

At the beginning of the week, the global market sentiment remains restrained, as stock markets are under pressure despite the start of the Christmas sales season in the US and Europe. Investors fix profits waiting for important news events of the week, as they are expected to set the direction of trading for several weeks or months ahead. The main news event this week is the speech of the new head of the Fed, J. Paula, before the banking committees of the US Senate. Markets hope that Powell's speech will provide information about his vision of the Fed's policy in 2018. Another important news event of the week is a vote on the draft tax reform in the Senate. In case of a favorable outcome, the positive news about the tax reform is capable of restoring confidence in the US currency and supporting the dollar in the medium term. It is worth noting that after the vote in the Senate, both US parties have to continue negotiations on the continuation of government funding and the exclusion of the risks of suspension of its work at the end of the year. Unexpectedly, China has become a source of some concern in recent days. The decline of the mainland's stock market, as well as the associated increase in volatility and growth in government bond yields, is a zone of uncertainty for global markets. The volatility of China's stock markets has already led to a drop in metal markets. The copper market is declining and today loses 1.36%

Yesterday in the first half of the day, investors positively accepted the news about the agreement of the German CDU / CSU bloc on further negotiations on the formation of a large coalition with the Social Democratic Party of Germany. The foreign exchange market reacted with the growth of the single European currency; Eur / Usd pair gained to local highs, but could not rise higher. Yesterday, contrary to our expectations, statistics on the sales of new housing in the United States showed strong numbers. The indicator has grown to the level of 685K against the forecast of 625K and the last month's figure of 645K.

At FOREX the major pair Eur / Usd is trading under some pressure, pulling lower from the local maximum down to the zone of the first support at Eur 1.1880. The situation is predictable and expected, after growth, players take profits expecting some strengthening of the dollar ahead of Paulla's speech.

The gold market yesterday attempted to storm an important $ 1295 level, however it did not succeed to gain a foothold higher. The market rolled back down to area 1291, leaving a shadow of a false breakdown on the daily chart. Nevertheless, yesterday's trading shows a strong market intention to go higher. Our forecast for the gold market remains in force, the market continues to accumulate forces for the realization of a sharp upward impulse.

The Brent oil market stopped the offensive at levels of $ 63.90, not reaching a bit a local maximum at $ 64.28. The proximity of the decisive meeting of OPEC does not allow developing negative sentiments in oil. Today, the market focus will be on statistics of oil and petroleum products from the API, tomorrow - data from the US Department of Energy Ministry and the meeting of the OPEC Committee. Oil market support level is located  at levels $ 63.15


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