US Nonfarm Payrolls Today

2 February, 2018

Today is Non-farm Payrolls day in the US. This data release is generally one of the most important of the month, being a leading indicator of consumer spending and economic health, made public shortly after it is calculated. It charts the change in the number of employed during the previous month. Also released at the same time will be the Unemployment Rate, which has dropped below the 2007 low during H1 2017. The continued fall has put further pressure on the Fed to normalise Interest Rates. Markets also focus on Average Hourly Earnings which is an indicator of labour inflation. Faster wage growth can lead to an increase in the pace of Fed hikes. There have been minimum wage increases in a number of states which could boost earning for January.

Swiss Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) was 0.6% v an expected 1.5%, from -0.2% previously, which was revised up to 0.3%. USDCHF sold off from 0.92320 to a low of 0.93031 after this data was released.

German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) was 61.1 v an expected 61.2, from 61.2 previously. Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) was as expected, unchanged at 59.6. EURUSDmoved higher from 1.24274 to 1.24493 following this release.

UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) was 55.3 v an expected 56.5, from 56.3 previously, which was revised down to 56.2. GBPUSD moved lower from 1.42631 to a low of 1.42018.

US Continuing Jobless Claims (Jan 19) was 1.953M v an expected 1.928M, from 1.937M previously, which was revised up to 1.940M. Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 26) was 230K v an expected 238K, from 233K previously, which was revised down to 231K. Nonfarm Productivity (Q4) was -0.1% v an expected 1%, from 3% previously, which was revised down to 2.7%. Unit Labour Costs (Q4) were 2.0% v an expected 0.8%, from -0.2% prior, which was revised up to -0.1%. USDJPY moved lower from 109.590 to 109.274 from this data release.

Canadian Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) was released at 55.9 v an expected 54.8, from 54.7 previously. USDCAD sold off from 1.23218 to 1.22677, moved by this release.

US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) was 55.5 v an expected 54.9, from 55.5 previously.

US ISM Prices Paid (Jan) was 72.7 against a consensus of 68.0. The previous reading was 69.0. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) was also out at this time, coming in at 59.1 v an expected 58.8, from 59.7 prior, which was revised down to 59.3. And finally, Construction Spending (MoM) (Dec) was 0.7% against an expected 0.4%, from the previous reading of 0.8%, which was revised down to 0.6%. EURUSD moved higher from support at 1.24314 to a high of 1.24975.

New Zealand Building Permits s.a. (MoM) (Dec) were -9.6% form 10.8% previously, which was revised down to 9.6%.

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