All Focus on US inflation data

14 February, 2018

The USD has weakened further overnight as the market awaits important US Data at 13:30 GMT. USDJPY broke down under 107.000, while GBPUSD made another attempt to stay above 1.39000. EURUSD advanced to 1.23900, while Gold followed suit to reach a high at 1336.80. The US CPI data later is expected to point to an Inflation figure that maintains the path of rate increases being travelled by the US Fed. Any surprise in the number can spark an increase in volatility comparable to the last week and a half of trading. If the number is a dud, the market can become indecisive and may attempt to test support and resistance before a direction is found. Any trend currently being traded may be altered by the market reaction to the data release.

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda spoke in parliament saying: Cryptocurrencies are mostly used for speculative investing and should be called crypto assets. Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are not seen as currencies. Japanese economic fundamentals, company profits are strong. The risk-off sentiment in the US led to stock falls and the BOJ will continue to closely monitor developments in markets because financial market moves can have an impact on the real economy. Japan’s economy needs the BOJ to continue current policy. The Bank of Japan is still a long way from price target. Japan’s economy needs persistent monetary easing.

UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan) was out at 3.0% v an expected 2.9%, from 3.0% previously. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan) was 2.7% v an expected 2.6%, from 2.5% prior. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jan) was -0.5% v an expected -0.6%, from 0.4% prior. Producer Price Index – Output (MoM) n.s.a. (Jan) was 0.1% v an expected 0.2%, from 0.4% previously. Producer Price Index – Output (YoY) n.s.a. (Jan) was 2.8% v an expected 3.0%, from 3.3% previously. Producer Price Index – Input (MoM) n.s.a. (Jan) was as expected at 0.7%, from 0.6% previously, which was revised up from 0.1%. Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) n.s.a. (Jan) was 4.7% v an expected 4.2%, from 4.9% previously, which was revised up to 5.4%. PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a. (Jan) was as expected at 0.3%, from 0.3% previously, which was revised down to 0.2%. PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a. (Jan) was 2.2% v an expected 2.3%, from 2.5% previously, which was revised down to 2.4%. Retail Price Index (MoM) (Jan) was -0.8% v an expected -0.7%, from 0.8% previously. Retail Price Index (YoY) (Jan) was 4.0% v an expected 4.1%, from 4.1% prior. GBP crosses experienced movment upon the release of this data.

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