Consumer Price Index and Housing Starts

16 March, 2018

At 10:00 GMT, Eurozone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Feb) will be released. The consensus points to an unchanged value of 1%. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Feb) is expected to be 0.2% from -0.9% previously. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb) is expected to be unchanged at 1.2%. Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (Jan) is expected at 0.4% from -1.7% prior. Inflation rose late in 2016 and early in 2017 to 2.0%, the highest levels in five years, but has stabilized around 1.3% since June (YoY). The ECB is looking for inflation to “approach 2%”. Labour Cost (Q4) is expected to be 1.8% against a previous reading of 1.6%. EUR pairs may see volatility pick up due to this data.

At 12:30 GMT, US Housing Starts (MoM) (Feb) is expected at 1.290M from a previous number of 1.326M. Building Permits (MoM) (Feb) is expected to come in at 1.320M, from the prior reading of 1.377M, which was revised down from 1.396M. This data is expected to show a slight fall in residential construction activity, but these data points have been recovering since hitting lows of 0.46M and 0.49M respectively after the 2009 financial crisis. The readings last month were the highest since those lows for both data points. USD crosses could see increased volatility around this data release.

At 13:15 GMT, US Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) will be released. The consensus is for 0.3% from -0.1% previously. After four months of positive data, this measure slipped below the zero line in the last reading but is expected to rebound back to the positive today. Capacity Utilization (Feb) will also be released at this time, with an expectation for 77.7% v 77.5% prior. This data point fell last month after reaching a two year high in December. USD crosses may be impacted.

At 14:00 GMT, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar) is expected at 99.3 from a previous number of 99.7. This measure of consumer confidence is at levels not seen since 2003, with the highest level since the financial crisis being achieved in October with a reading of 101.1. USD crosses could move in reaction to this data.

At 17:00 GMT, Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Counts will be released with a headline number from last week of 796. WTI Oil could become volatile around this data release and will be in traders’ minds when trading resumes on Monday.


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