17 May, 2018
Yesterday, the market expected the euro zone CPl to increase compared to the previous month. The euro once tested the resistance at 1.1855 and the result fell after the announcement. Subsequently, because the Italian Five-Star Movement Party was discussing the issue of government debt relief, causing market concerns, Italy's national debt was in jeopardy, and the stock market fell. Under the influence of the euro, it was low at 1.1772, hitting a year-end low. The European currency pound was also affected and fell. After news digested and US housing data did not reach market expectations, the dollar fell and the euro returned to the 1.18 level. The pound sterling rebounded this morning and returned to the 1.35 level. Yesterday, the yield of US Treasury bonds rose again, and gold continued to be under pressure, breaking through the previous day's low, with a low of nearly 1,286. Silver fell in synchrony with gold and was once low at 16.16. With regard to oil prices, crude oil inventories have decreased, and oil prices have again risen, again approaching the high of 71.85 in this month.
This morning, employment statistics were released in Australia. The number of part-time employees decreased, and the unemployment rate increased. However, the number of employed people and full-time employment increased significantly, affecting the Australian dollar. In the afternoon, European data shows only the euro area construction output data, which is expected to have little impact. The market believes that the United States pays attention to the number of U.S. jobless claims tonight, the U.S. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index and U.S. leading indicators. Because the market will use the above data to assess future consumption and employment conditions to monetary policy and interest rates. If the data is not good, it is possible to ease the yield of US Treasury bonds, which will cause the dollar to fall, bring about the rise of European currencies, commodity currencies and gold; however, the rise in oil prices may be under control.
The economic growth in the euro zone remained flat, but US consumption and economic growth were forecast to rise. US Treasury bond yields continued to be high, widening the interest gap between the US dollar and the euro, resulting in the inflow of euro funds into the US dollar. However, no economic data will announced by the United States, if the European data in the next two days are positive, the euro will have a chance to rebound and may test the resistance at 1.1860.
In the next two days, the United Kingdom has no data to publish a test, I believe that the trend of the sterling pound will be synchronized with the euro. It is believed that the short-term the sterling pound formed consolidation at 1.3460, technically it needs to adjust and test the resistance at 1.3615.
Yesterday the Italian news mainly affected the euro and had little impact on the Swiss franc. If the euro has the opportunity to rise and make an estimate, the USD/CHF may test near 0.9970/50.
Japan announces the national consumer price index tomorrow morning, and the market is expected to decline from last year. The monthly rate may maintain negative growth, which will negatively the yen. However, it is believed that with the slowdown in the dollar's rise, the yen will have a chance to adjust. Note that the USD/JPY have a chance to adjust risk.
The Australian employment data results in this morning, the number of employed people and full-time employers increased significantly, it is estimated that the Australian dollar will test the first-tier resistance at 0.7555/70.
The rise in the food price index is good for future New Zealand trade revenue. If the dollar falls and the Australian dollar rises, the New Zealand dollar is expected to follow.
The oil price lead the trend of the Canadian dollar. Yesterday the oil price rebounded, Canadian dollar rebounded. In addition, the market is expected to announce two important economic data in Canada this Friday, and have the opportunity to support the Canadian dollar before the results.
Estimating short-term downward pressure on the euro against the sterling pound, the current focus on the euro against the sterling pound to adjust to resistance may have the opportunity to continue falling. If 0.8755 breaks, the trend will be reversed and goes up.
Continue to estimate that the EUR/CHF keeps falling. If 1.1865 breaks, the trend will be reversed and goes up.
At present, only the yield of US Treasury bonds has risen, supporting the US dollar and suppressing gold. However, fundamentals are affected by many political factors, support the Gold.
US crude oil futures:
The decrease in crude oil inventories stimulated the rise in oil prices. In addition to the political factors, oil prices are supported. However, if the price of oil still fails to break through the recent resistance, it could be reversing and downward.
8450 / 8650 resistance ,
The investor worried the Government control crypto currency trade and transaction, bitcoin and other crypto currencies fell recently. After the global block chain forum, it seems a confident back. By technically, if the bitcoin higher than 7500 support, it seems a uptrend in short term.
Information provided by : ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
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