18 May, 2018
Yesterday's the Eurozone construction output data was better than expected, but due to the low impact of the data, the euro did not rise significantly. Last night, the number of U.S. jobless claims increased, but the number of continuing applicants decreased. The U.S. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index and U.S. leading indicators were both higher than market expectations, which was positive for the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen. In recent months, important economic data in the United States showed an increase in performance. The increase in interest rates in the United States was expected to increase. The yield on the ten-year Treasury bonds in the United States remained at a range of 3.1%, resulting in the US dollar remaining strong against major currencies and gold and silver downtrend. If the U.S. data show a slowdown in the future, U.S. Treasury yields turn lower and the U.S. dollar declines, or the performance of European economic data increases, there will be opportunities to bring about the rise of European currencies, commodity currencies, and gold. Otherwise, the US dollar remains strong against the major currencies in the short term, and gold and silver remain downward.
This afternoon, Germany announced the production price index and the euro area current account and trade account, the importance of which is neutral. If the above figures are significantly higher than market expectations and previous values, it is estimated that these figures did not significantly stimulate the euro’s rise. In the evening, Canada released consumer price index and retail sales to reflect inflation data, among which the core consumer price index and core retail sales are of high importance. The current market is expected to grow faster than last month and is expected to be worth more Canadian dollars before the announcement. Since there is no important data released in the United States tonight, plus the Friday position adjustment, before the close of the weekend, the U.S. dollar may adjust downwards, and European currencies and commodity currencies will have the opportunity to adjust and rise. Gold and silver are also the same. The price of oil may also be down to the next level of support.
The euro zone economy has not shown outstanding performance. Central bank officials stated that monetary policy has remained loose, and that the U.S. economy has performed strongly, which has negatively affected the euro. However, with the release of a number of economic data in the United States, and no data released today, the market has the opportunity to adjust and the euro has a chance to rise.
There is no UK and U.S. data today, but the performance of data in Germany and the euro zone in the afternoon may affect sterling pounds. Starting in the evening, because there is no U.S. data released today, the market has the opportunity to adjust, and the sterling pound has the opportunity to go up.
Since there is no reference data in the Swiss today, the market mainly refers to the trend of the euro. If there is a chance for the euro to rise, the USD/CHF may test reference support, such as 0.9985/70.
This morning, Japan announced the national consumer price index, which was lower than market expectations and fell compared with last year, negatively affecting the yen. However, it is believed that as the dollar's rise begins to slow down, the yen will have a chance to adjust, and the US dollar may fall after breaking the 111 against the Japanese yen.
Yesterday’s Australian employment data showed that the employment population has increased significantly positive for AUD. However, the performance of the US economic data is still positive as well and it made the Australian dollar fell. There is no U.S. data today and the Australian dollar has the opportunity to adjust and up.
The global food price index is rising will benefit New Zealand trade exports. If the dollar falls or the Australian dollar rises, it is expected that the New Zealand dollar will rise following the Australian dollar trend.
The oil price dominated the trend of the Canadian dollar. The oil price adjustment fell yesterday, and the US dollar returned over 1.2800. However, Canada announced two important economic data tonight. If the data has better performance, it could positive Canadian dollar.
We estimate short-term EUR/GBP downward, if the EUR/GBP resistance 0.8755 does not break through, the trend will continue downtrend.
In the afternoon, the euro zone announced important data. It was estimated that the euro had a chance to rise against the Swiss franc. If 1.1840/55 still fails to break through, it is estimated that the trend will maintain a downward trend.
The current market, due to the rise in the yield of US Treasury bonds, has benefited the US dollar and the widening of interest margin has led to the suppression of gold. However, the fundamentals are greatly affected by political factors, and they will have an impact on gold. The gold could be rebound if any political factor happened.
US crude oil futures:
Due to the reduction in crude oil inventories, which stimulated the rise in oil prices and the influence of political atmosphere, yesterday's oil price once saw a break of near-term resistance at 72.25. Technically, the trend of oil prices maintains upward trend, but we must pay attention to adjustments and pay attention to technical support at 71 dollars.
8250 / 8450 resistance ,
The investor worried the Government control crypto currency trade and transaction, bitcoin and other crypto currencies fell recently. After the global block chain forum, it seems a confident back. By technically, if the bitcoin higher than 7500 support, it seems a uptrend in short term.
The above is for reference only; the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Trading must pay attention to risk management! Happy trading!
Information provided by : ATFX Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin La
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