Euro currency makes a comeback

2 July, 2018

The common currency which had fallen sharply over the past few weeks and was eventually seen hovering above the support level of 1.1540 level was seen making a strong come back on Friday morning.

Coinciding with the rebound off the support level, the gains came following news that a successful EU Summit where the European migrant crisis was the main topic of debate.

Heading into the event, investors were cautious as the topic was divisive and threatened not just conflicts between the EU nations such as Italy, Greece and Malta which bore the brunt of the migrant crisis but also German leadership as well.

Ahead of the EU summit, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel's closest ally, the CSU party threatened to impose border checks in what was seen by many as a major threat to the German leadership.

However, following talks that went late into the night, the EU leaders finally announced that the EU nations had agreed to new laws to address the migrant crisis.

The release of the news managed to push the euro currency higher on the open and the currency continued to post gains for the major part of the day.

U.S. final GDP for Q1 was revised lower to 2.0%

Contributing to the gains was also the fact that just the previous day, the first quarter GDP data from the U.S. was revised downward. The final revised GDP showed that the U.S. economy advanced just 2.0% in the three months ending March 2018. This was weaker than the initial two estimates which showed that the economy advanced 2.2% during the quarter.

The euro currency managed to post a reversal pattern on Thursday and followed through with strong gains by Friday's close.

Eurozone flash inflation estimates show headline CPI increased 2.0%

Later in the day, the European statistics agency, Eurostat released the flash inflation estimates for the month of June. Data showed that headline consumer price index rose 2.0% on the year ending June. This was in line with the median forecasts.

The core CPI, which strips the volatile food and energy prices were also seen rising 1.0% on the month, matching the median forecasts. This however a slightly slower pace of increase compared to 1.1% gains that were logged in the year ending May 2018.

The flash inflation estimates showed that consumer prices rose to the highest level in more than year, with major gains coming from higher energy prices. The inflation rate was also higher than the ECB's forecasts.

The ECB has set an inflation target of 2.0% and over the past few years unleashed a strong monetary policy stimulus program to revive the Eurozone's economy.

The gains in energy prices managed to offset a rather muted gain in prices across services and the industrial sector.

Although the inflation gains might be temporary and highly reliant on crude oil prices, the fact remains that the higher inflation data comes at a time when the central bank recently announced at its monetary policy meeting in May that it would be ending QE by December 2018.

Following a mini-taper to 15 billion euro starting from September, the central bank outlined its plan to completely phase out QE by the end of the year. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at record lows however at least until the middle of next year.

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