ECB in focus as trade tensions ease

26 July, 2018

European Commission President Juncker and US President Trump agreed to suspend new tariffs during the negotiations which aim to lower barriers to transatlantic trade, which rekindled hopes that an escalation of trade tensions can be avoided. Both sides will “hold off on other tariffs”, which while talks proceeds, so car tariffs are being put on the back burner for now at least. The EU pledged to buy more soybean and import more natural gas from the US and Juncker said the deal may lead to a reassessment of metal tariffs “in due course” with both sides agreeing that if there is sufficient progress this can be done “from one day to another”. US stock markets staged a late rally, but as China’s example shows the apparent truce may be short lived. Back in May a framework for trade negotiations was dropped within days of it being announced.

Today’s highlight is the ECB meeting where the Bank is expected to confirm the policy outlook that was announced at the June meeting. That is to cut back net asset purchases to EUR 15 bln in October, and to phase out QE in December. EURUSD broke back over 1.1700 last night and holds  1.1735 with resistance at the key 1.1750 zone.

The Crossing EMA Strategy both style 1 and 2 triggered on the H1 and H4 time-frames yesterday.

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