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January 23, 2017
Can Supreme Court Ruling Help GBPUSD Remain Bullish ?
Tomorrow, Tuesday 24 January, around 09:30 GMT, the UK Supreme Court will release the Brexit lawsuit Ruling, on whether the UK Prime Minister Theresa May will need the UK parliament’s approval to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, to leave the EU...
January 20, 2017
Cautious EURUSD Ahead of ECB Press Conference
USD, and the US government bond yields, surged last night following Fed president Janet Yellen’s speech to the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco...
December 13, 2016
The Fed waiting game
Ranges were on the tight side during Monday as markets hold back ahead of the two-day Fed meeting in the US which starts today. This is the last major known risk event of the year, so once over, we’re likely to see volatility and volumes diminish into year end...
December 8, 2016
Tapering and extending
The main challenge for markets today will be steering through the messages that emerge from the ECB meeting and press conference. Whereas the Fed meeting next week is seen as a near certainty in terms of its outcome, this is not the same for the ECB...
December 5, 2016
Crisis Lite
The Italian referendum on constitutional reform saw voters reject the proposals in front of them, in a fairly decisive manner. As such, Italian PM Renzi will tender his resignation today and this became part of the issue...
November 23, 2016
Can OPEC Meeting Help WTI Break Major Resistance
OPEC will hold the next meeting in Vienna on 30th Nov, discussing about further details regarding output freeze. Due to the market expectations on the likely agreement after the meeting, oil price has rebounded since 14th Nov, after testing the long term significant support line at 43.00...
November 17, 2016
Calmer for now
The main focus today will be FOMC chair Yellen’s testimony to the economic committee on the economy. Text is released 13:00 GMT with testimony following at 15:00 GMT...
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November 16, 2016
Dollar dominance
There was a sense of stabilisation yesterday after the sharp rise in bond yields seen at the end of last week, the impact of which spilled over into the FX and also equity markets. It’s notable that trading ranges have remained wider since the US election last week...
November 11, 2016
Trump Trades
The story being seen in stocks markets and currency markets in the wake of the US Presidential election result is starting to diverge. Asian currencies have been under pressure, with the Korean won, Indian Rupee and Aussie dollar all weakening overnight...
November 9, 2016
The politics of change
The most accurate thing stated by Trump during his campaign was It's going to be brexit plus plus plus… and indeed it was, with Trump defying the closing polling and the ever more fancy infographics suggesting a win for Clinton. The reaction in markets verifies this comment...
October 27, 2016
Brexit Barometer
The Brexit vote back in June taught markets never to take anything for granted and the same holds true for the upcoming US Presidential election. A poll lead for Trump in Florida yesterday, combined with some further revelations in the daily mud-slinging...
October 26, 2016
Sterling reversal
What we saw in sterling yesterday was instructive of the dilemma that may face other central bankers before long. Carney played down expectations of a further easing in policy before the end of the year, as was strongly suggested in August when they eased policy in the wake of the Brexit referendum...
October 20, 2016
Doting on Draghi
The ECB meeting arrives today when EURUSD is testing key levels. The mid-year lows at 1.0952 is perilously close as I write, whilst the post-Brexit referendum low of 1.0913 being in the frame after that. It’s hard to see the ECB adding to its quantitative easing policy...
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October 12, 2016
FTSE Tests Long Term Significant Resistance
The FTSE 100 index hit an all-time high, on Tuesday. It was helped by the outperformance of energy and mining sectors, as a result of the rise of oil and precious metal prices, as well as the increase in corporate overseas profits, as a result of a weak pound...
October 11, 2016
The dominating dollar
There is little standing in the way of the US dollar at this point in time. If we look at the past seven sessions on the dollar index, where we’ve seen a 1.7% increase, there have only been three other brief prior periods during the year when we’ve seen a similar pace of appreciation...
October 7, 2016
The Sterling Flash Crash
Sterling’s overnight flash crash is the main talking point of markets at the start of the Friday session. As is the case with most such situations, the actual cause of the sharp decline at the start of the Asia session is not clear...
October 5, 2016
The euro snapback
The single currency has been most notable for the ever tighter trading ranges that have been in evidence in recent weeks. There was a slight wobble to that yesterday as the single currency gained on a story suggesting that the ECB...
October 3, 2016
Election countdown
We start a new month and quarter, which is likely to be increasingly taken over by the impending Presidential election in the US, something which the market has largely managed to ignore up to now. To this end, the US employment report, due for release at the end of this week...
September 22, 2016
Moving on from the Fed
The reaction seen in currency markets yesterday to respective central bank policy decisions was instructive of the change in dynamics that we’re seeing. The BoJ enacted a number of changes to its policy regime...
September 21, 2016
Bank of Japan runs out of road
The Bank of Japan delivered a whole heap of nothing at its policy meeting today, although some adjustments were made to its policy framework. If you take the time to read through these measures, then the impression is of a central bank that has largely lost the monetary plot...
September 20, 2016
Sceptical equities
There was a definite yield differentiator on yesterday moves against the US dollar, which was generally in retreat. Those gaining the most were those with the highest interest rates, such as the South African Rand...

September 9, 2016
GBPUSD Near Major Resistance Levels
Yesterday the Bank of England announced the Inflation Report, stating that the BoE will implement further QE when it is necessary. The performance of the UK economy after the Brexit vote so far has been a bit better-than-expected. Yet we need more subsequent data to have a clearer picture...
September 7, 2016
That deja vu feeling
There is a strong feeling that we’ve been here before, exactly 12 months before to be exact. Markets got themselves into a frenzy that the Fed will hike in September, with Fed officials not standing in the way, only for the data to scupper things...
September 5, 2016
Chance of September Rate Hike Fades on Weak NFP
The US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Unemployment Rate for August were released on Friday. The NFP reading fell to 151k, lower than both expectations of 180k, and the previous figure of 255k in July...
September 1, 2016
Shaping up for a volatile dollar
We enter a new month and it’s a month that is going to be pivotal for the dollar. The greenback has been clawing away at the prospect of a further rate increase from the Fed and tomorrow’s employment report could well determine whether the Fed has the ammunition to move rates higher later this month...
August 30, 2016
Has Yellen Dollar Bounce Gone Too Far?
Janet Yellen hawkish statement in Jackson Hole last Friday on 26th August has led to a dramatic move in the dollar. The dollar index reached the biggest intra-day rally of 1.48% since 24th June, the dollar strengthened across the board...
August 17, 2016
Dollar Rebounds after Hitting the Post Referendum Low
Despite the US labour market showing robust growth for two months, the appallingly low Q2 GDP and retail sales figures imply that economic growth and inflation rise are still weak...
August 12, 2016
US Retail Sales Will be the Key
The Retail Sales figure in June was robust, rising by 0.6% from 0.2% in the previous month, beating the expectation of 0.1%, has seen the third straight positive figure. YoY Retail Sales increased by 2.7%...
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July 29, 2016
Advance Figures Weigh On U.S. Q2 GDP Forecast
The Atlanta Federal Reserve announced their second quarter GDP growth forecast of 1.8% from 2.3%. This was based on the data on wholesale and retail inventories in June released on Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau...
July 8, 2016
Splitting US jobs data
The US employment report will be crucial in setting the market tone ahead. With expectations for a move this year only around 10%, it’s a tall order to put it back on the table...
June 30, 2016
Look beyond the index
As always, the FTSE 100 acts an illusory indicator of the UK economy. The fact is that it has recovered all of the losses seen in the wake of Brexit. Happy days I hear you say...