A week of key economic events for the U.S. Dollar

January 29, 2013
Investors this week wait for a heavy slate of top-tier U.S. economic data, starting with Durable Goods Orders on Monday and ending with the employment reports for January on Friday. In-between is the U.S. fourth-quarter advance GDP data and outcome of the Federal Reserve’s first meeting of the year.
A busy economic calendar kicks off with December orders for durable goods on Monday. Economists concsensus forecast for a 1.8% jump in orders for December after a 0.8% rise in November.
A related report, the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing PMI for January, scheduled for release on Friday, is expected to hold steady above the 50% mark that indicates expansion.
U.S. GDP, Fed policy decision and monthly jobs report to remain the top agenda for the week
The U.S. labor market has been showing strength recently. The latest weekly unemployment claims at the lowest level since January 2008, probably reflecting improved hiring, have raised optimism from the jobs report. The January jobs report, scheduled for release on Friday, is expected to show, the U.S. economy likely added 156,000 jobs in the first month of 2013, continuing with the recent pace of job creation in the range of 150,000-plus. The unemployment rate, however, is expected to remain high but hold steady at 7.8%.
              U.S. Unemployment Rate (Source: United States Department of Labor)
Meanwhile, no policy change is expected from the Fed, when it concludes the first policy meeting of 2013 on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to continue injecting liquidity (QE program) into the economy until the jobless rate falls to its targeted 6.5% rate.
Also on Wednesday, the government is scheduled to report the estimated (first release) U.S. GDP data for the final three months of 2012. Consensus estimate that the U.S. economy expanded at a 1.3% in the fourth-quarter of 2012.
Technical Outlook

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