EUR Little Changed after Merkel

September 23, 2013

The week starts with good sentiment as China prints better than expected manufacturing PMI in September (51.2, versus 60.9 expected & 50.1 prev). Shanghai’s Composite added 1.31%, while Hang Seng index retreated 0.73%. PBOC set the Yuan mid-point at 6.1475 versus US dollar, the highest since 2005 revaluation.

The good Chinese PMI helped AUDJPY to recover to 93.60 overnight; AUDUSD traded up to 0.9438 early in the session. Offers remain tight pre-0.9500 as stronger AUD increases the probabilities for a future RBA rate cut to cool down the markets.

USDJPY and JPY crosses were mixed with thin holiday volumes giving support to USDJPY at 99.10 in Tokyo. The pair slipped to 98.91 in the European opening; bids are seen at 98.90/99.00, while option bids are building above 98.00.

In Germany, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats won the elections with 41.5%, just under the majority leaving Merkel in obligation to find a partner. The German elections finally had little impact on the single currency. EURUSD opened the week slightly on the downside, after having traded at 1.3554 on Friday. The pair remained well supported at 1.3520. Fed decision to leave the asset purchases at USD 85bn per month and upcoming uncertainties on US budget/debt deadlines are likely to keep EUR well supported against USD. The manufacturing PMI releases across the Euro-zone and ECB President Draghi’s testimony will be the main EUR-drivers ahead of us.

Else, GBPUSD defends strength above 1.5980/1.6000 before 2Q final GDP numbers due Thursday. After last week’s rally to 1.6163, the pullback to 1.6000 helped to release tensions on the upside. RSI still remains at 70% - overbought region.

Today, the focus is on Swiss August M3 Money Supply and KOF Institute’s September Economic Forecast Report, French, German and Euro-Zone September (Advance) PMI Services & Manufacturing, Euro-Zone September PMI Composite and US August Chicago Fed National Activity Index.

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