24 March, 2014
On Friday March, 21 the US dollar was traded slightly downwards vs. most major currencies, having lost about 0.1% to the dollar index amid absence of any significant macro statistics in the USA. The Canadian dollar strengthened its positions after release of positive Inflation data and Retail Sales in Canada. The euro slightly increased amid strong Current Account and Eurozone Consumer Confidence.
The euro broke two-day fall and slightly strengthened its positions amid strong Current Account data and Eurozone Consumer Confidence. The Eurozone Current Account proficit increased in January to 10-months high at the level of €25.3B from €20.0B in December against the expectations of decrease. Flash Eurozone Consumer Confidence exceeded the expectations in March and strengthened its positions to -9.3 against -12.7 in February, which appeared to be the highest reading since November, 2007.
The Canadian dollar increased after release of positive Inflation data and Retail Sales in Canada. Consumer Price Index increased in February by 0.8% vs. the previous month, having exceeded the expectations of growth by 0.6% m/m and having demonstrated the highest monthly growth rate for this year. Annual inflation growth rate decreased in February less than expected (0.9%) – to 1.1% from 1.5% in January. Retail Sales increased in January by 1.3% m/m (the highest growth rate for over 8 months) against the expectations of growth by 0.7%.
According to the results of the last week the US dollar strengthened its positions vs. most major currencies, having demonstrated the highest growth to the dollar index for over 7 weeks, and having added 1% to the DX. The FOMC Meeting which increased the possibility of earlier base interest rates increase supported the US dollar. The dollar increased vs. all major currencies except the Australian and New Zealand dollar. The highest growth was demonstrated by the US dollar vs. the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar (more than 1%).
On Monday in the USA Chicago National Federal Activity Index and Flash Markit Manufacturing PMI will be released; on Tuesday – S&P/Case-Shiller and FHFA Housing Price Index, New Home Sales and CB Consumer Confidence; on Wednesday – Durable Goods Orders; on Thursday – Final US GDP for the 4th quarter and Pending Home Sales; and on Friday – Personal Income and Personal Spending, and Revised U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
On Monday in the Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI in France, Germany and the whole Eurozone will be released; and on Friday – European Commission Business Confidence. On Tuesday German IFO Business Survey will be released, on Wednesday – Gfk German Consumer Climate; and on Friday – preliminary inflation data. Slight decrease of Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and IFO Business Climate is expected.
On Wednesday in Italy Retail Sales and Preliminary Inflation data will be released. European countries will go on daylight savings time on March, 30. On Tuesday in the UK Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index will be released; on Thursday – Retail Sales; and on Friday – Final GDP for the 4th quarter and Current Account. Further decrease of annual inflation growth rate is expected in the UK.
On Friday in Japan Inflation, Unemployment Rate, and Retail Sales data will be released. On Monday in China Flash HSBC Manufacturing PMI will be released. On Wednesday in Australia semiannual RBA Financial Stability Review will be released, and RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak. On Thursday in New Zealand Trade Balance data will be released.
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