31 March, 2014
On Friday March, 28 the US dollar was traded mixed amid reduction of the US Consumer Confidence. The US dollar decreased vs. the pound sterling and the euro, but increased vs. the yen and major commodity currencies, having added about 0.1% to the dollar index. Commodity currencies were corrected downwards after considerable growth of the previous days. Consumer Confidence data appeared to be worse than it was expected.
UoM Consumer Sentiment dropped in March to 80 p. comparing with 81.6 p. of the previous month, but appeared to be slightly higher than preliminary estimations of 79.9 p. At the same time, final data was predicted at the level of 80.5 p. The index dropped in March to the lowest reading for over 4 months. Consumer Expectations reading decreased for the nearest 6 months. FOMC Member Charles Evans announced on Friday that interest rates will stay near zero level during considerable part of 2015.
On Friday the pound sterling continued strengthening its positions amid growth of the UK Consumer Confidence in March to the highest rate for more than 6 years. Country’s services sector in January demonstrated the highest annualized growth for almost 6 years since February, 2008. The yen weakened its positions before the finish of the financial year in Japan in the end of March and impositions of sales tax since April, 1 amid positive dynamics of stock markets. Citigroup expects that Bank of Japan will increase monetary stimulation program till July, due to this fact USDJPY may increase to 108-110 till summer.
The euro sharply dropped on Friday to 4-weeks low vs. the US dollar after release of weak Spanish inflation rate data, but then it gained back all the losses amid growth of Euro-zone Economic Sentiment. Euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator increased in March to 102.4 p. (the highest level since July, 2011) from 101.2 p. in February, having exceeded the expectations. The indicator grows for the 11th month in a row already. All confidence indices increased, which speak for the Euro-zone economy recovery continuation in the nearest future.
Preliminary March CPI in Spain, the fourth Euro-zone economy, fixed the first case of deflation of consumer price index since 2009 (-0.2% y/y). German Inflation Rate data also demonstrated slowdown of inflation rate growth. Preliminary Consumer Price Index (y/y) increased in March by 1% against 1.2% in February and expectations of growth at the level of 1.1%. March Inflation data of the whole Euro-zone will be released on Monday March, 31. Weak Inflation data strengthened the expectations of further stimulation measures on the part of ECB.
According to the results of the previous week the US dollar demonstrated multidirectional dynamics, having added 0.1% to the dollar index. The US dollar decreased vs. major commodity currencies (more than 1%) and the pound sterling, but increased vs. the yen, the Swiss franc and the euro. According to the results of almost finished month, the US dollar increased vs. the yen, the Swiss franc, the pound sterling, and the euro – but decreased vs. AUD and NZD (more than 3%) having added 0.7% to the dollar index.
The main event of the week will be the release of key Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday in the USA, preliminary ADP data which will be released on Wednesday. In the USA on Monday Chicago PMI will be released, on Tuesday – ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending; on Wednesday – Factory Orders
On Monday 14 July the US dollar was traded mixed, having almost no changes to the dollar index amid absence of significant macro statistics in the majority of countries...
On Wednesday April, 2 the US dollar strengthened its positions vs. most major currencies after release of ADP Employment Change. The US Factory Orders growth also exceeded the expectations...
On Friday March, 21 the US dollar was traded slightly downwards vs. most major currencies, having lost about 0.1% to the dollar index amid absence of any significant macro statistics in the USA...
On Monday March, 3 the US dollar was traded upwards Vs. most major currencies amid ISM Manufacturing PMI growth in the USA. Markit PMI...
The markets will expect the signals from the US Central Bank about the QE3 Tapering plans, which negatively influences the dollar...
The main event in the Eurozone will be the Friday release of Preliminary GDP of France, Germany, Italy, and the whole Eurozone for the 4th quarter...