Forecast for the week 28.07.2014 - 01.08.2014

July 28, 2014

A key event this week will be the US Federal Reserve's two-day meeting June 29-30. It is expected that the American regulatory body will again curtail the QE3 asset purchasing program from 35 billion USD to 25 billion USD. Even now, one may confidently predict that this program will be cut from 25 billion USD to 15 billion USD at the September 16-17 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, and QE3 will come to an end October 28-29 with a final reduction of 15 billion USD. It is likely that ending the asset purchasing program will increase long-term interest rates in the US, thereby bolstering the world's reserve currency.

Other significant events this week will be US GDP data for Q2 2014, US labor market statistics for the month of July, and the final figures for business activity indices in industry from such giants as China, Japan, Germany, Great Britain, the United States, and the Russian Federation for the month of July. Considering the EU's intention on July 29 to impose sanctions against the major energy companies of the Russian Federation, we expect a continued decline in European assets. The key EUR/USD pair may reach a support level of 1.3300 by the end of the week; GBP/USD may reach a level of 1.6900.

Yen exchange rates may manifest interesting behavior in the middle of the week. Despite a likely reduction in industrial production and consumer spending in Japan in the month of June, we do not rule out the possibility that the Japanese currency, acting as a protective asset, will strengthen against the US dollar amid the collapse of carry trade operations. We expect the USD/JPY pair to continue to consolidate in the range of 101.60-102.20. 

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